Friday, April 19, 2024
The overall market continued lower but the Dow managed a gain of 220 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ led the way down again and was off over 300 points. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is at indicator extremes. Buyers are nowhere to be found. Fears about geo-political conflict have taken over the markets. Markets that don't bounce after reaching oversold can be dangerous. Although the Dow saw some upside the smaller stocks did not and that's a problem going forward. We are on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $4 on the futures after being much higher during the session. The US dollar finished flat as did most interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on about average volume. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and the short term up trend line remains intact. I still like the idea of the GDX calls going forward but will try and wait for a signal before trying them again. GDX is overbought on both a short and medium term basis. However in strong uptrends these conditions can last for a while. If we see some weakness next week perhaps we'll try the calls here again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but well off its highest levels on the session that took it above the important 20 level. The short term indicators here remain overbought but not have turned lower. Not sure what's next for the VIX. An interesting week as the market kept dropping and we never did see any kind of sustained bounce for stocks. But the market knows things that we do not. Moving into the May option cycle next week. We'll be checking the charts and keeping an eye on the news headlines as the weekend goes by. Europe finished mixed and Asia was lower with the exception of India to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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