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Thursday, April 11, 2024

To the upside today for the broader market but the Dow had a loss of two points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving lower. After a brief morning sell off stocks took off higher. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and the NASDAQ was up over 250. The Dow was the laggard. The inflation data came in about where expected and not as hot as we thought. The S&P is now mid-range in a channel that it has been constructing for the past month. The Bollinger bands continue to get tighter so a big move is forthcoming. Which way is the question. The short term indicators for the S&P are mid-range as well so you can make the case for either direction. Perhaps we'll get a burst higher from here for option expiration week to new all time highs. Or maybe the bears will finally take control. Sideways is the only other choice. We just don't have a good signal right now for the SPY options so we'll remain on the sidelines with regards to that. Gold jumped $44 on the futures today. It has taken on a life of its own. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were a touch higher. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was average. My order for the GDX calls wasn't filled and I canceled it. GDX remains extremely short term overbought. The volume was lighter today which leads me to believe that perhaps this dramatic move higher is running out of steam. However the rally in the gold shares is so strong you really don't know where it will end. I would like to try the GDX April puts again but that may not be the smartest thing to do here. It could be that we might have to let the April option cycle run its course without a trade. We only saw a one day decline in GDX on the sell signal that was triggered. I'll consider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after hitting a new recent high in the morning. The daily chart here looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators on the VIX are pointing down with room to go. It is implying higher stock prices in the near term. So perhaps we'll see the rally in stocks return as liquidity could come back into the market. That's just a guess as technically things appear to be about even right now. However the big move in the NASDAQ today could be a sign of things to come as another day like today would lead it to new all time highs. Asia was mixed and Europe lower again in the overseas trade. I would expect those markets to follow the US higher on Friday. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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