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Tuesday, April 02, 2024

The day began with a gap lower and finished with negative results. The Dow fell 396 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to a sideways configuration. The market opened down and moved sideways to higher for the rest of the session. The Dow led the way lower again. Not a good start by the bulls for the month of April. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but they remain short term overbought. If tomorrow continues to the downside you could make a case that the rally is in question but that hasn't happened yet. We are overdue for some kind of decline but haven't seen one for months. We'll know more as the week goes on. Gold continues to attract money as the futures were up $40. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX added 3/8. Volume was good to the upside. Yes I would still like to get some of the GDX April calls. GDX is still short term overbought and pretty far from its 50 day moving average. We'll need to see some kind of pullback before attempting the calls because it is obvious that the train has left the station. However money keeps pouring into gold and that cannot be ignored. Not exactly sure what's going on but we also know things can turn on a dime in the other direction as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did close below the highs on the session. The short term indicators here have turned higher and have room to go. The VIX is now above its 50 day moving average and closed on the 200 day. The daily candlestick chart has the look of wanting to move lower from here though. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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