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Monday, April 22, 2024

Finally got a bounce today as the Dow was up 253 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is slowing its descent. The NASDAQ led the way higher but stock indices did finish well off of the best levels on the day. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but the indicators here have turned up for now. Sometimes the Monday after option expiration moves in the opposite direction of Fridays activity. That could be what occurred today. We'll know more as the week goes on. Plenty of big tech earnings this week. We'll also get a look at 1st quarter GDP along with inflation data later in the week. Option premiums are expensive so we'll remain on the sidelines for now with respect to the SPY. Gold plunged today as the futures fell seventy bucks. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. The XAU lost 5 points, while GDX shed 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. The gold shares had a gap lower to start the day and never recoverd. The up trend line that began in March for GDX was broken. The short term indicators here are moving lower but not yet oversold. That said, I did place an open order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. It would not be a surprise for GDX to head back to the down trend line that it broke on the weekly chart a few weeks ago. That comes in at around a point or so from todays close. GDX would have to drop down there for my option order to be filled. That is the next trade on our radar, subject to change as conditions change of course. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving lower and are about mid-range. The VIX looks like it wants to continue down on the daily chart which would benefit stocks. But I haven't had a good feel for the VIX lately. Plus stocks did not exactly finish on a robust note today. We'll see. Europe and Asia were up to start the trading week. I'll keep an eye out on the overnight developments.

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