Thursday, March 28, 2024
Continued buying to close out the month and the quarter as the Dow rose 47 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is starting to drift higher. The Dow remained the leader today. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and remains the laggard for now. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought, staying there and closed at an all time high. The liquidity remains abundant as there seems to be plenty of buyers regardless of the circumstances. We'll get inflation data and the Fed chairman tomorrow but the US market will be closed as will others around the globe. So there will be a long holiday weekend to digest whatever comes out. Golds rally continued as the futures were up $28. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was good to the upside and GDX has closed above the resistance at 31.25. The gold shares, although short term overbought, should be moving higher from here. We'll try to jump on board next week despite the overbought technical conditions. It is risky though as GDX is now above its upper Bollinger band. However the implications of GDX breaking above its long term resistance line that has been in effect for two years cannot be ignored. It appears that gold and the gold shares are simply heading higher for whatever reasons. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still short term oversold on the VIX. Not sure where it's heading next. A long weekend on tap with plenty of time to go over the charts. Our game plan for now is simple. Try and buy some GDX calls next week on any drop in that index. Might be tough if Monday opens higher for gold yet again. We are late on this idea but do think that the gold shares have further to run up ahead of the April option expiration. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe barely higher overnight. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a break.
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