Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Continuing higher ahead of the Fed as the Dow gained 308 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still in a sideways trend. We got yet another signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next couple of days and today validates that. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. We cannot argue with price though as the S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. Still short term overbought here but not at extremes. We'll have to wait and see what the Fed has to say and the markets reaction. There seems to be no shortage of buyers at the moment. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates slipped a bit. The XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX lost 2/3. Volume was better than average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over with plenty of room to go further. The question now it whether we wait for GDX to get all the way oversold or do we step in and try the April calls there if there's weakness tomorrow? Never easy in this game but we'll ponder the possibilities overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed on its 50 day moving average. This has been an area of support for the last month and a half. The short term indicators are pointing down with room to go which implies that higher prices are in store for stocks in the near term. However that won't happen if the 50 day continues to hold. Looks like we're at an inflection point on the VIX. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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