Tuesday, March 05, 2024
Sellers arrived today as we had a gap down at the open and kept going from there. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. The Dow fell 404 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. Each time we've seen a drop like this over the past month or so it has never amounted to much of a decline. After todays price action the long term trend line for the S&P 500 is still intact. The short term indicators there have rolled over but will that actually mean something this time? Perhaps the negative RSI divergence will finally manifest itself as it has been the condition for the S&P although it does look like it was negated. Time will tell and we'll know by the end of the week. It's probably too late for the SPY March puts but we'll see. Gold continued higher as the futures rose $11. The US dollar finished flat again but interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. They both finished on the lows of the day and well off of their highs. The gold shares are due for a pause to digest the good gains over the past few trading sessions. Whether or not this is the top for this move remains to be seen but the gold shares are now short term overbought. The next technical expectation here would be a move back to the broken down trend line. GDX made it back to its 200 day moving average but was rebuffed. My GDX March calls are still showing a decent profit but today may have been the day to exit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and that was expected given the markets decline. The short term indicators have turned up with plenty of room to go. The VIX implies that lower stock prices are on the way. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We've got the Fed chairman in front of Congress tomorrow so we'll see how that goes.
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