Friday, March 01, 2024
The buying continues on the 1st of the month as the Dow gained 91 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to break out above its sideways trading channel. The NASDAQ led the way and closed at a new all time high along with the S&P 500. The S&P remains short term overbought but the negative divergence on the daily RSI has now been negated. It was a signal that didn't work but luckily I didn't try the SPY March puts yet. Not sure exactly where all the liquidity is coming from but we won't argue with price. Waiting on a decent signal for the next SPY trade and it still could be the March puts as we have two weeks to go in the March option cycle. The gold futures took off to the upside by $38 and closed at a new all time high. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added almost a buck. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX has broken the down trend line in effect since the beginning of the year on good volume. That is bullish. The short term indicators still have room to move higher and are not yet overbought. Not sure why gold has all of sudden taken off but we'll take it. My GDX March calls are now showing a good profit. But with two weeks to go in the March option cycle, the management of the trade will determine whether or not it is successful. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX appears to have put in a triple bottom but we'll have to see where it goes from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators on the VIX are getting more overbought. Not at extremes but getting there. We'll have plenty to ponder over this weekend as we go over all the charts. Asia and Europe were higher to close the week as money is moving into stocks around the globe. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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