Thursday, February 29, 2024
Inflation data came in where expected which led to some volatility today. We opened higher, gave it all back and then rallied back again into the close. The Dow finished with a gain of 47 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to track sideways. It seems like the market still just can't figure out what it wants to do here. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with the negative RSI divergence still in place. Perhaps we'll get a shot at the SPY March puts at some point but when that point is I don't know at the moment. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU rose 2 3/8, while GDX was up 5/8. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up. GDX finished well off of its highs for the session. The problem here is that every bounce we have seen lately for GDX hasn't sustained any buying. That could again be the case here as the down trend line at 27 remains in effect. We'll need to see some more buying if this GDX March call trade is to work out. It is showing a small profit after today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains perched at the 50 day moving average. Still short term oversold but not extremely so. I don't have a good feel for where the VIX is heading next. Some economic data due tomorrow but nothing as important as today. Plenty of Fed speak to close out the week. Europe and Asia finished mixed last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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