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Thursday, February 01, 2024

Powering back to the upside as the Dow gained 369 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Yesterday now seems like a blip on the radar as the market wants to go higher. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but we can't argue with price. But we'll see what happens tomorrow. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up. We thought that it would be a short window for the SPY February puts and it looks like it was. But we may like that idea again as the February option cycle moves on. I will try and wait for a decent signal though if one shows up. We will watch and wait for now. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The gold shares came to life. The XAU was up 4, while GDX gained over a point. Volume was heavy to the upside. I canceled my open order for the GDX February calls but this may be a move worth chasing. Bonds and gold are now seeing a flight to safety on the possibility of more Middle East turmoil, this time involving the US. The short term indicators for GDX on a daily basis have moved higher with room to go. So I might place an order over night and see if it gets filled in the morning. The problem is that one of our short term timing models for GDX is already overbought and we would rather see that pull back before trying the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. The VIX did reach its upper Bollinger band in the past couple of sessions so perhaps it's ready to trend lower now. No good signal on the VIX at the moment. We've got the jobs report tomorrow and unless it is a big surprise it may not have the usual effect since we've already had the Fed put a damper on any kind of near term rate cut. But we'll see. Both Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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