Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Still treading water here as the Dow dipped 23 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Tomorrow should get things going one way or the other on the inflation data. If that doesn't get things moving I don't know what will. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and the negative RSI divergence remains in place. I decided to stay on the sidelines with regards to the overall market and not purchase the SPY March puts today. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX March calls was filled today. Since I took this trade I stayed out of the SPY put idea. Not sure that was the correct decision though. I at least waited for the price that I was willing to pay for this GDX call idea. GDX is short term oversold but the indicators could still move lower as they are not at extremes. A little over two weeks remaining in the March option cycle but we will probably know tomorrow whether or not this trade will work. Mentally I'm feeling a bit anxious. Not sure the trade taken on today was worth the risk. Might have done it out of just wanting to get the next trade going. It has technical justification but I'm certainly not confident about it. The VIX was up today and has bounced off of its 50 day moving average. Still short term oversold here but not extremely so. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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