Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Higher today as we did not see any downside follow through to yesterdays debacle. The Dow gained 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. After todays price action we have to consider that yesterday was simply a one day wonder but we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. The long term up trend line in the S&P 500 from last November does remain intact. The short term indicators there have now turned back up as they have for most of the duration of the rally. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart of the S&P may have played itself out in one day. We'll know more as the rest of the week goes on. Plenty of economic data out tomorrow with retail sales being the main event. On the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY trading. Gold fell $3 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on above average volume. We are waiting to see if one of our indicators gives a buy signal for GDX. If it does we'll try a bounce trade there. If not we'll look elsewhere. GDX remains short term oversold on the daily indicators and has been for quite some time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term technical indicators there have turned lower or are in the process of doing so. The VIX is implying that the selling is over but again we'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up. A long weekend ahead in the US as well. More inflation data out on Friday along with option expiration. So it should be a busy final two days of this week. Asia was mixed and Europe up in last nights trade. We'll see how the markets react to the data tomorrow.
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