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Monday, February 05, 2024

Some selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 274 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with a potential negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. Not much on the economic calendar this week but plenty of earnings. Some Fed speak as well. I still would like to try the SPY February puts at some point before option expiration on the 16th. But we'll wait to see a clear signal first if one shows up. Gold dropped a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares fell as the XAU lost over 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was average. My GDX February calls are solid losers and this trade is in a cut the loss mode at this point. Renewed Middle East tension over the weekend couldn't help the precious metal. A rising dollar along with higher interest rates isn't a help for the gold bulls as well. GDX closed below the important level of 27.5. I don't think anything can save this trade from being a loser. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. The short term indicators remain mid-range. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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