Friday, February 09, 2024
The climb higher continued for the overall market but the Dow fell 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way by far today and that's another plus for the bulls. We didn't see a big move in the overall market so the recent signal for that in the McClellan oscillator failed. The S&P 500 did get its close above the 5000 level though. Still short term overbought on the S&P with a potential negative divergence for the RSI on the daily chart. If we stay positive into Tuesday I'll try the SPY February puts. At least that's the idea before the weekend. My market prognosis hasn't been good lately as it appears that simply buying some SPY calls and holding them was the proper play. There's also the posibility that we see some kind of blow off top next week into the option expiration. Gold was off $8 on the futures to finish the week. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU lost another 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume moved up to be about average.. I ended up selling my GDX February calls for a 95% loss. Even another breakout of violence in the Middle East probably wouldn't have saved this trade. A loser from the start and poorly managed once again. My market sense is off right now. Not a lot of money involved but it is the negative expending of the mental capital that holds you back. Your ideas need to fit the market narrative, not the other way around. I'll put this trade behind me and start fresh on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK all things considered. Losing trades are part of the game but they should not eat up 95% of the trade. Moving on is part of the deal too when it comes to this game. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with an overall higher market. Not sure what that implies. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Perhaps I'll consider moving into the GDX March calls as GDX is oversold and staying there. But there's time to consider things in the next couple of days this weekend. Much of Asia was closed and Europe ended the week slightly lower. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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