Friday, February 16, 2024
The inflation data came in more than expected again and after an intitial drop in the first half hour the market came back to positive territory until there were two hours to go. Sellers then took over and the Dow fell 145 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index remains trending up but within a sideways range. The NASDAQ led the way lower. I thought that perhaps we would see some kind of blow off top for stocks here but that isn't the case. If it was we'd already be going straight up. Todays price action puts the market in a tenuous position in my view. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 is still intact. However the long term up trend line is still working as support. But to me the rate of ascent is too steep and I'm looking for a pull back to the 4800 level. I could be wrong and often am. I'm considering the SPY March puts. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on about average volume. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX looks bullish as it has bounced off of its lower Bollinger band this week. It is also oversold on a medium term basis. There is a down trend line still in effect there though and a negative week next week would negate this weeks potential positive candlestick. The trading is never easy. If the market drops next week as I believe that it will the gold shares will probably go with it. Newmont earnings are due on the 22nd as well. I am looking at the March GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a bit today. Not seeing any clear signal one way or the other on the daily indicators here. There will be plenty to ponder over the long weekend coming up. Rolling into a new option cycle as well. I'll be going over the charts as usual to try and come up with some kind of game plan for the comming trading week. I'll try and not dwell on the recent losing GDX trade and missing out on the SPY puts this week. Europe and Asia finished higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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