Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Stocks got clobbered today as the Fed spoke and the market didn't like what it heard. Big tech earnings were not viewed in a positive light as well. The Dow fell 317 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back in a sideways mode. The NASDAQ led the way lower and was off over 2%. The S&P 500 lost almost eighty points. The short term indicators there have now rolled over with plenty of room to go. Yesterday was the time to try the SPY February puts but I missed out. Perhaps too focussed on gold again. No excuses really as we figured today would be a mover and that move was lower. Support for the S&P comes in at 4800 and at this rate we'll be there tomorrow. One day doesn't make a trend but you can make a case for a negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart. If that turns out to be valid the 50 day moving average might be the target. We've still got the jobs report to get through on Friday but I think that the main fireworks went off today. Gold finished flat after being up for much of the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. No clear signal going for GDX but my open order for the February calls remains out there. As long as 27.5 holds I'm still willing to give this idea a shot. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today and that fits the down move in stocks. The short term indicators are pointing up with room to go. The VIX implies more volatility and lower stock prices to come after todays movement. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll be looking for some follow through downside tomorrow.
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