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Tuesday, January 09, 2024

The day was spent in a sideways zone after dropping at the open and the Dow fell 157 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. It appears to me that the overall market took today to digest yesterdays stellar gains. The S&P 500 was only slightly lower and the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are neither overbought or oversold. My guess is that stocks will move back up tomorrow. Waiting on inflation data Thursday. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was average. GDX closed below its 50 day moving average and the short term up trend line that was support. It is now short term oversold but I'm waiting on buying the GDX calls for now. There is another up trend line that comes in at 28.5 and a longer term one on the weekly chart at 27.5. Those are the areas that I'm looking at to try the GDX February calls. Not sure if we get there or if those levels will hold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are trending lower with room to go. This should be a positive for stocks unless there is some kind of dramatic turnaround. The VIX is another reason to stay positive on the stock market for now. I still think that new all time highs could occur this week. I would like to point out that I missed a trade in natural gas over the past month when UNG got down to 4.5. It has since risen around 50% in about a month. We did look at it when it was down to 4.5 but were not sure if it would simply continue to drop although it was very oversold. I will look to purchase it if it gets back down there again. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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