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Monday, January 29, 2024

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 224 points on light volume. The advance/declines shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving back up. We got a pop in the final hour that powered the indexes higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that is a plus for the bulls. Plenty on tap this week with the Fed on Wednesday, the jobs report on Friday and big tech earnings tomorrow and Thursday. The S&P 500 is short term overbought and staying that way. It does seem to be getting a bit frothy but trying the SPY puts here is risky. However if we do continue higher into the Fed announcement I may give that idea a shot. It would be strickly short term in nature as the upside momentum here is hard to go against. But some of the technical indicators are reaching extremes and that can't last forever. Gold was up $14 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dipped. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. GDX bounced around today. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up and are approaching mid-range. This is a wobbly light volume rise so far and I still have my open order out there for the GDX February calls. This may be an idea whose time has passed though. If we make another trip down to 27.5 and hold it could be spot for this trade. Remains to be seen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a bigger than usual range today and finished a bit higher. That doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators were higher as well. Not sure what the implications are. However given all the data due out this week it would not be a surprise to see some volatility return. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to begin the week overseas. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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