Thursday, January 18, 2024
A rally appeared out of nowhere as the Dow gained 202 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. The McClellan oscillator had gotten pretty negative yesterday and was in an area where normally we have at least seen some kind of bounce. We got that today but will it last is the question. I think that it will as I am still a believer in new all time highs on the S&P 500 at some point soon. I could be wrong. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up or are in the process of doing so. Expiration Friday tomorrow and anything goes there. The daily chart for the S&P 500 looks like it has been consolidating for a month or so. One day does not make a trend but it is possible that we are about to break out to the upside here. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was barely higher and interest rates in general were steady. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. The gold shares not rising with the price of gold is not an encouraging sign for the bulls. GDX is however short term oversold for about a week now. It is also hanging around the long term up trend line support at 27.5. I have my open order out there for the GDX February calls. But I need to decide if I should just purchase the calls here at the price they are at or wait to see if my order will get filled. Also a close below the up trend line would be a bearish development and then the calls would not be the right choice. I'll try and figure out what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and if it continues in that direction it would be a positive for stocks. The 200 day moving average has held the advance in the VIX for now. We'll keep an eye on it moving forward. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.
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