Monday, January 08, 2024
Stocks took off to the upside to begin the week as the Dow gained 216 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way and that is bullish. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We thought that we would be moving higher from Fridays levels but not this much in a day. It appears that the S&P is poised to hit a new all time high. My SPY January calls gained quite a bit of ground and I sold them in the afternoon for a 200% profit. I probably should have held them as it looks like last weeks decline has run its course. However the huge gain in just a day will have to be enough for now. The entry on this trade was good but the exit may be premature. We'll see how things go from here. Gold dropped $16 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight drop as did interest rates. The gold shares held up well perhaps following the overall advance that we saw in the stock market today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on pretty light volume. GDX is trying to hang on to its 50 day moving average and the short term up trend line. I'm still looking at the GDX calls but may go out to the February option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are around mid-range. The VIX has room to move lower which would be a plus for stocks but we will have to wait and see what it does from here. Inflation data on Thursday and Friday should be movers for the markets. Earnings season begins Friday as well. If we build on todays gains I'll venture a guess that we see all time highs for the S&P 500 by the end of the week. But that's just a guess. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to start the trading week overseas. We'll see if we get some upside follow through tomorrow.
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