Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Deciding which way to go here as the Dow was up 133 points in a mixed market. Volume was light and the advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ off over 100 points. The S&P 500 was barely negative on the session and remains short term overbought. Tomorrow we'll see some movement as the Fed decision looms along with the press conference afterwards. The SPY puts didn't get to a price that we wanted to pay and it seems that today was the time to buy them. The S&P futures are already in decline as it appears that big tech earnings are a disappointment. But we'll see how it goes tomorrow. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Once again gold was positive and the gold shares didn't follow. That's a negative. I canceled my current open order for the GDX February calls and replaced it at a lower strike price. Still over two weeks left in the February option cycle. The short term technical indicators are not showing a clear signal here for GDX. However as long as the support at 27.5 holds up I think that the calls would be the way to go. There is also the possiblity that GDX just goes sideways and that would not help with the option trading. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. We aren't seeing any kind of clear signal here either as to what to expect next with this indicator. A lot depends on what the Fed has to say. Of course good or bad earnings will drive things one way or the other as well. Nothing wrong with the sidelines but you won't make any money staying there all the time. I suppose we'll get through Wednesday and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.
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