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Thursday, January 04, 2024

Still heading lower for the overall market but the Dow managed a gain of 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index is beginning to form a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower again. We are getting to short term overbought on the S&P 500. I do think that any weakness tomorrow can be bought for a short term trade. We will be looking at the SPY January calls if there is some early selling. This certainly wouldn't be a trade to hold for too long but it may be worth the risk. Not sure what to expect from the jobs report so we held off on a taking any trades for the SPY today. Gold gained $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were higher. The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. I did place an open order overnight for the GDX January calls but it was not filled. We'll get the employment report and go from there. The up trend line support on GDX at 29.5 has held for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and is at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are overbought but not extremely so. If the 50 day holds we should see some buying in stocks and the indicators roll over. If not the market will head lower. It looks like tomorrow will hold the key as to where we are going. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher overnight. We'll see about the reaction to the jobs numbers tomorrow.

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