The Dow took off to the upside today but pared its gains in the final hour. We closed the day higher by 146 points but we were up over 300. The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 positive and volume was average. This should turn the summation index back to the upside. I placed an order for some OEX puts but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it in overnight but I may be too late again already. No real news for the rally in the stock indices, just the hope that Europe ends up OK. Not overbought or oversold here on a short term basis. I'm a believer that puts should be owned at some point before the employment report next week. I could be wrong. GE was up about 1/4 on light volume. It too was higher earlier in the day. I'll keep an eye on GE as a proxy for the overall market. It has been a precursor of sorts lately. Gold bounced back today, the futures gained over $50. The US dollar had a weak day. The XAU was only up 1/4 after being much higher early in the day. ABX was up 1/4, GG was flat and NEM lost 7/8. Volume was light here. I think it is too early for a sustained up move in the gold shares here. That said, I would still like to own some November calls eventually. If the overall market falls as I expect, the gold shares should drop and that would be an entry point for the calls. Wishful thinking perhaps. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. So we had a huge move to the upside in the stock indices and couldn't hold on. My order is in for some OEX puts but it may not get filled. The daily candlestick charts don't look positive for the stock indices with todays move. But that could all change tomorrow. End of the month on Friday. We'll see what happens overnight in Europe and go from there.

A huge rally to start the week as the Dow gained 272 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. I'm inclined to believe that this is simply an oversold bounce but you never know. No concrete news to rally on today yet up we went. I'm not going to try and figure it out. The market speaks and we should listen. I still want to own some OEX puts before the employment report at the end of next week. Hard to be patient here but that is what's required. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. The January calls are still what I have in mind here. No hurry to purchase them as I will probably wait until next month. Gold was very volatile today as the futures lost $45 but made a comeback in the aftermarket. Overnight the futures were down twice that much. The dollar was off a bit today. The XAU gained 3 3/4 after being lower early on. ABX up a buck, GG rose 1/2 and NEM led the way higher by 1 1/2. Volume was average. I did place an order for some ABX calls but was not filled. I'm leaving the order in overnight. I'm pretty sure this is where to make the purchase. I would expect things to be choppy for a couple of weeks but I could be wrong. I'm trying the October cycle but may go out to November as time goes on. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. A nice rally out of nowhere today and we should see some follow through in the overseas markets. I'm still a believer in the OEX puts for the October option cycle. My feeling is that gold will hold up here around the $1600 level but I could be wrong. The technicals for the gold shares are oversold here. The ideal situation would be for some base building before we move higher. We'll see.

The Dow held up pretty well today and finished the day with a gain of 37 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. Perhaps we'll see a bounce in the beginning of next week. I get the feeling anything to the upside will be a short lived reprieve. I think we'll still see lower prices in the weeks ahead. Looking out a couple of weeks, I'd probably like to own some OEX puts before Octobers employment report. GE was up about an 1/8 on average volume. We're at the bottom of the trading range here and I do believe that we will break down. I'm still looking to buy the January calls here at some point. Gold had another debacle of a day, down just over 100 on the futures, with a slight bounce back in the aftermarket. The US dollar was down a touch but that didn't matter. Gold is now in a free fall as usually happens when something goes parabolic. The XAU fell 8 1/4. ABX down 2 1/3, GG lost 2 1/8 and NEM shed another 2 1/3. Volume was heavy. The gold shares did bounce a bit during the day. I would still like to get some gold share calls for October or more likely November. However we are just gapping down every day right now. Gold itself is around 1650 and support in my opinion come in at 1600. I may purchase some calls if and when we get to that point. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. It was a negative week for all of the markets it seems as the realization is now that a worldwide slowdown in economic activity is at hand. We're oversold on a lot of the indices but could stay that way for a while. It's a tough trading envirornment. I still think that if we get a bounce, it can be shorted. I could be wrong. Plenty of data out next week and we've got the end of the month as well. I'll check the charts over the weekend

We are in liquidation mode as the Dow fell 391 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. A slight comeback before the close as we were down over 500 points. We've got lower to go though as the August lows are not going to hold up here in my humble opinion. Something is going on here but I certainly don't know what it is. All markets are dropping around the globe in what looks like a repeat of the fall of 2008. Buy index puts on any bounce if we get one is the strategy now. Plenty of time left in the October option cycle. Not sure just how low we will go this time around. It creates opportunity as well don't forget. I'm going to try and be patient but who knows? GE was off 1/3 on heavy volume. I'm still looking at the January calls here. No rush to purchase them but that is the game plan for GE. Gold got pummeled as well, down $66 on the futures as the flight to the US dollar was substantial. No flight to safety for the precious metal today. The XAU dropped 16 2/3. ABX lost 4 1/2, GG fell 3 1/2 and NEM down 2 1/2. Huge gaps to the downside in the gold shares. If the stock indices continue to the downside, the gold shares probably will follow. That said, I would still like to own some calls here at some point. The October or November calls in either ABX or GG. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The summation index is heading lower. The trend is down. We are about to break through the congestion zone of the past few weeks to the downside. I'm not sure how low we will go. If we drop hard again tomorrow I may purchase some gold share calls but I could be early. These are interesting times. Opportunity will present itself. It's a matter of being ready and being prepared. I'll check the charts tonight and go from there.

I suppose we know which direction that we are headed now as the Dow lost 283 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. This will turn the summation index back to the downside. The Fed spoke and the market reacted. I don't know if there will be a chance to get any OEX puts on this move. They were expensive before todays move and they are more so now. If we do get one of those one day bounces, that would be the time. My guess is that we are going to take out the lows of August. GE lost 2/3 on better volume. I'm still a believer in the January calls here. I'll be getting them in the next few weeks if the decline proceeds as I expect. We could not make it through the 50 day moving average on the daily charts. Gold fell today as well and the US dollar was higher. The precious metal was down over $20 in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 6 1/4. ABX off 2/3, GG down 1 1/2 and NEM fell 2 1/4. Volume was average. I'm going to try the October or November calls here at some point. I'm not sure if it will be with ABX or GG. Mentally I'm doing OK. Hard to fault myself for not already owning some puts here as the premiums are so high. But if we just drop like a rock here I certainly won't be happy. I do have some longer term ideas that could work though. Keep an eye on TRAN to see if it breaks the previous lows as it is a leading indicator as of late. Volatility picked up today and we will have to see if that continues as well. I think we are heading much lower in the next few weeks. Puts are in order for the stock indices in my opinion. I could be wrong and often am.

Kind of a mixed bag ahead of the Fed as the Dow gained just 7 points after being up well over 100. The advance/declines were negative and volume was light. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Now I'm not exactly sure what the next move is. Todays action leads me to believe that we are now headed lower. I might get some OEX puts tomorrow when we get the usual gyrations during the Fed announcement. Or not. More overbought than oversold here. One of the problems is the high priced option premiums. However if this is the beginning of the next leg down, puts will be profitable regardless. I'll consider this overnight. GE lost 1/8 on light volume. Volume has shrunk here in the first 2 days of the week. Waiting on the Fed perhaps. Gold had a good day, the futures were up $30. The XAU rose 4 1/2 points. ABX up 1/2, GG gained 2 1/4 and NEM was the star of the day up 3 2/3. Volume was good. NEM is breaking out to new highs. Will ABX and GG follow? I did put an order in for some ABX calls today but canceled it before the close. This is something to consider tonight as well. If the overall market drops will the gold shares go down as well? The gold shares are more overbought as well but there could be room to move higher. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Waiting on the Fed and so is the market at this point. I have a couple of ideas here but not sure what direction that I'll take. I'll check the charts overnight and decide which direction to take from there.

We started the week off with a whimper as the Dow fell 108 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. European worries persist but I think the real trouble is the slow economy. That's my take for now. We were down well over 200 points early. The small stocks are still showing good relative strength so I continue to believe in higher prices near term. We've got the Fed announcement the day after tomorrow as the main news of the week. Prices should move off of that. GE lost an 1/8 on light volume. Getting close to the 50 day moving average on the daily chart for GE. If we can get through there it could bode well for the overall market. Gold dropped $35 on the futures today and the XAU fell 2 points. The US dollar was higher today. The gold shares were mixed with ABX off 1/8, GG down 7/8 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was average. I'm on the sidelines here for now. We are getting oversold though. The plan is to own some calls prior to the earnings releases in October. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. The market seems to want to go higher here. The summation index is still rising. One thing that troubles me though is that the price of copper has broken down. This is usually a good indicator of the strength of the economy. It also has a tendency to be a proxy for the stock indices in my opinion. That is why even though stock prices seem to want to rise here, I'm not inclined to purchase the calls. We'll see what happens as time goes on. Option premiums are high with the extra week in the October cycle. Stay tuned.

An expiration upward drift as the Dow gained 75 points on average volume. The advance/declines were just about even. Short term overbought now and I would expect some type of pullback in the beginning of next week. The summation index is moving higher and the trend is up. The major stock indices are still in the consolidation zones from the recent August decline. However the small cap indices have broken out to the upside. They are usually the leaders going up or down. Therefore I would expect the other stock indices to follow. We'll see. GE was up 1/4 on OK volume. We are at the top of the congestion zone here as well and it is something to keep an eye on. If GE breaks out I would expect the stock indices to follow. Gold made a comeback today, up $33 on the futures. The XAU rose 2 1/3. ABX up 3/4, GG higher by 7/8 and NEM gained 1 3/8. Volume was light. The US dollar bounced back today as well. Not exactly sure of what to make of things here with gold. The daily gold share candlestick charts do look constructive to the upside though. The gold share calls could be my next trade. I would like to own the calls ahead of the next earnings reports. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It wasn't a good trading week for me but I suppose it could have been worse. The market wants to go higher here it seems. You cannot fight that. However we are in an event driven marketplace and Europe is the driving force at the moment. So we'll see if any news comes out over the weekend and go from there. The option premiums will be pricey for October going from here. It's Friday afternoon and close to the end of summer. Time for a break.

An expiration week rally as the Dow gained 186 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Summation index moving higher. We've broken the downtrend lines on some major stock indices and the trend is now up. Getting short term overbought here. No trades in mind for the OEX at the moment. We'll be rolling into the October option cycle on Monday and they have an extra week. Premiums will be higher than usual. GE was up another 1/3 on lighter volume. Still looking to go out to the January options there. Perhaps next month. Gold took a hit today as the flight to safety trade looks like it got unwound a bit. The precious metal fell $45. It came back a bit in the aftermarket. This happened despite the US dollar taking a good hit today. The XAU was up 1/3. The gold shares sold off early but made a comeback. ABX up 1/8, GG down 1/3 and NEM up 1/8. Volume was light. I'd like to own some calls before the next earnings reports here but that is over a month away. Getting oversold here but not there yet. Mentally I'm doing OK. I've put yesterdays dumb trade behind me and I'm looking ahead. That's really all you can do. No solid ideas at the moment. It looks like we'll be heading higher near term. We'll get through the expiration tomorrow and go from there.

It was the third positive day in a row as the Dow gained 140 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were up twice as much but sold off in the last half hour. When we got to the downtrend line on the S&P 500, I bought the OEX puts. We then raced higher through the line and the puts got slammed. I took the loss at around 65 % in the span of a few hours. This was a trade I should have avoided as I do not do well with the short term options. The market was telegraphing higher prices and I did not listen. I once again tried to impose my idea on the market and the market is always right. That said, as soon as I sold the puts the market dropped back to the downtrend line that it had broken through. The OEX puts that I bought regained their value. So perhaps this trade would have worked. We'll find out tomorrow. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. I should have taken the cue from here, as GE was stronger for the past couple of sessions. Again, I did not listen. Gold lost a few bucks on the futures. The dollar didn't do much today. The XAU lost 3 1/2. ABX fell 7/8, GG dropped 1/3 and NEM down just a touch. Volume here was nothing special. No trades in the gold shares for now. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. I really should have just stayed on the sidelines today. Even if we drop tomorrow, I'm out of the OEX put position. So it's a no win situation and I've already booked the loss. The problem is being able to do the right thing when necessary under market conditions. I think that I just wanted to make a trade without the technicals all in line and I paid for it. I also could have bailed out with a smaller loss but I didn't. So there was nothing good from this trade. 2 days left for the September option cycle and I'll be on the sidelines. I'll have to put today behind me and go from here.

To the upside today as the Dow gained 44 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The market has the feel of wanting to go higher here. I did not try the OEX puts today but still may before Friday. If we get up to the down trend lines on the OEX or S&P 500, I might give it a shot. However as I've said before the short term trades are not my best. Economic data out tomorrow and that should move things around. GE was up over 1/3 today on average volume. That was another excuse not to buy the OEX puts today. Gold was up $16 and more in the aftermarket as the dollar was much weaker today. The XAU was up a buck. ABX rose 1/4, GG fell 3/4 and NEM gained 1/4. A mixed bag there. I think that I'm going to wait for a pullback to the up trend lines in the gold shares before I put on the next trade. I'll be looking at the October calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. Sometimes the hardest thing to do in the game is to do nothing. That is what I am facing at the moment. As much as I'd like to try something here with 3 days to go, the more prudent approach may be to just sit it out. I'll check the charts again tonight and decide what to do or not do.

An interesting session as the Dow was down for most of the day but made a last hour comeback to finish up 69 points. The advance/declines were negative and the volume was good. It feels like the Dow is trying to put in a bottom here. However I am considering some OEX puts before the week is out. We still have a down trend line that is in effect until broken to the upside. The European indices have already broken down through the congestion zones that the US indices currently find themselves in. With only 4 days to go on the September options the risk is high. I may have to consider going out to October but the premiums are very high. GE was off a touch on heavy volume. I'm still looking out to January there for the calls. No hurry. Gold took a hit to start the week, off $46 on the futures. We came back a bit in the aftermarket. The US dollar was higher today but closed off of its highs. The XAU was down 6 points but was much lower. ABX off 1 1/4, GG fell 2 1/4 and NEM shed 1 1/4. All of these issues were lower during the day as well. I thought about getting some ABX calls for this week but did not do it. Again, the risk in trading this week will be very high. The potential for profit somewhere is out there. However the chance for loss is just as great. Mentally I'm doing OK. The stock indices had an upside reversal today, opening lower and closing higher. We are more oversold than overbought as well. I think I will wait and see if we make it to the down trend line and then buy the OEX puts at that point. That's the idea at the moment.

A steep sell off to end the week as the Dow lost 303 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 6 to 1 negative. I was leaning more towards the upside but that was obviously wrong. Troubles in Europe again and there is no end in sight there. The summation index will now head lower after todays action. The S&P 500 had a huge drop in August and we have stabilized and moved sideways since then. This is perhaps a bear flag implying much lower prices in the offing. The German stock market has already broken through to the downside. This is something to consider and keep in mind. GE lost 1/2 on good volume. We are back to test support at $15. If GE breaks down through $15, it could mean that the stock indices will follow. I'm still looking at the January calls there. Gold was up a couple of bucks as the US dollar soared. I'm not sure what is going to happen here because higher dollar prices are generally bearish for gold. However the flight to safety trade is still in vogue and gold is part of that. The XAU lost 3 7/8 today. ABX down 2/3, GG fell 1/2 and NEM off 3/8. Volume was average. I might try some gold share calls next week but it is extremely risky. Still overbought and staying there. Mentally I'm feeling tired. Yesterdays usual aftermarket routine was interrupted by a power failure. 5 days left in the September option cycle. Again, any trades for next week will be of the short term variety. The October cycle has an extra week. I'll check the charts over the weekend and consider what strategy to undertake for next week. I'd expect some follow through downside on Monday but after that, who knows? For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 119 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. So where do we go from here? I certainly don't know. The case can be made for either direction since we are not overbought or oversold. I will try and not do anything stupid here but you never know. Bernanke blabbed today and tonight we get Obama. I'm favoring the upside here but not enough to take a position. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. I probably won't be trying the September 16 calls here. Too much risk. Gold made a comeback as all sell offs are being bought at the moment. It was up $40 on the futures and more in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX gained 3/4, GG up 3/4 and NEM higher by 1 7/8. This despite the US dollar having another very good day to the upside. The gold shares are very overbought and staying there. I might try something here before expiration but again, the risk is high. The prudent thing to do would be to stay out for September at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not exactly sure what I'd like to do here but my bias is for higher prices for the stock indices in the short term. That's a guess as always. When in doubt, stay out as the saying goes. Not sure I'm going to do that. One more trading day in the shortened week.

The Dow soared to the upside today as it gained 275 points. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 positive. Volume was lighter than yesterday. The summation index should be back to moving higher after todays action. Europe, meaning Germany, had some good news for a change. The question now is whether this rally is for real. I certainly don't know. We aren't overbought or oversold here. The lesser issues such as the NASDAQ are performing well here and that usually leads to higher prices. However I will consider the OEX puts again once we reach near term resistance. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow before Obamas jobs speech. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. I am considering a short term call trade here for the September option cycle. But I may be too late as yesterday probably was the day to initiate it. There's only 7 days left on the options. I'm still looking to go out to January there as well. Gold took a hit today, down $55 on the futures. The US dollar was down as well as the flight to safety trade took a day off. Perhaps this is the beginning of the unwinding of that trade. That's a guess as usual. The XAU was up almost 1 1/2 as the gold shares did not follow gold today. ABX was up 7/8, GG gained 1/2 and NEM fell 3/4. Volume was average. Not sure what to make of the gold shares today. I do know that ABX and GG are right at their resistance of $55. If they break through that level there is nothing to stop them from going much higher. Overbought here on these issues but that may not matter. Might try a trade here before expiration. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. Volatility has returned to the stock indices as we were down 300 points early yesterday and today we gained 275. The trades have to be short term in nature I believe to be successful. That really isn't one of my strong points. I'll be keeping an eye on things as usual and we'll see what happens.

An interesting start to the week as the Dow lost 100 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. We started the day down hard and at one point were off 300 points. However there was never any follow through downside and we rallied almost 100 points in the last half hour. A short squeeze? Perhaps. I think it has more to do with Europe and perhaps some good news coming out of Germany tomorrow. But I don't know, of that we can be certain. I sold the OEX puts today for a 140% profit and it should have been more. The market did not react the way I wanted it to but I held on to the puts anyway. I should have dumped them early in the morning. I may buy them back before expiration but we'll have to see exactly what the market does from here. GE lost 1/2 on heavy volume. If GE is a proxy for the stock indices again then perhaps we're heading lower. It has been gapping down and is at support at $15. I'll keep an eye on it. Gold lost around $20 on the futures after hitting a new record high. The US dollar was stronger today and appears to be starting an uptrend. That could be important for the stock indices and gold going forward. The XAU was up 1/4. ABX gained 3/4, GG lost 1/8 and NEM was flat. Volume was good. The daily charts may have put in short term tops with todays action. The daily candlestick charts look like dojis at the end of an up move. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I still want to try the gold shares again when they get oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK. Still not impressed with the way I handled the exit of the OEX trade. As always, trading is an ongoing process. 8 days left in the September option cycle. I don't have any pressing ideas at the moment. The stock indices have the feel of wanting to go back up here but that is nothing to trade off of. I'll check the charts again tonight. I did have a thought of perhaps getting some gold share puts here. I'll review tonight as well. Had I properly exited the OEX trade, perhaps my confidence would be a bit better. We'll see what happens in Europe overnight and take it from there.

It was a downer on Wall Street today as the Dow lost 253 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. It was a steep drop at the open and then we hovered around for the rest of the day. The employment report was a disaster, as no new jobs were created last month. I'm a bit surprised that we didn't drop even more. My OEX puts are solidly in the black. The question now is when to sell them. I'll consider the scenarios over the long weekend after checking the technicals. GE was down almost 1/2 on average volume. I might take my OEX cues from here. GE made a slight comeback in the afternoon. We'll see. Gold was the star of the day gaining $47 on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The dollar was higher as well and the flight to safety trade is back. The XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX up 1 1/4, GG gained 1 1/3 and NEM tacked on 2 bucks. Volume was good. Looks like I sold the ABX calls too soon. Even though it was a profit, it should have been much more. Continuing to be overbought on all levels for gold but I think we are going to see new highs next week. I may just jump in and buy some more gold share calls as well. I'll consider it over the weekend. Money continues to flow in there and we are in the gold favorable month of September. Mentally I'm doing OK but a bit tired. Not all that happy about dumping the ABX calls early but you've got to move on. At least I'm on the right side of the OEX trade and the entry timing worked. Getting out right is the next challenge. A long 3 day weekend to consider things. I don't get the feeling that this downdraft is the beginning of something big to the downside but we'll see how it plays out. We're not short term oversold on the stock indices but could get there in a hurry. As I said, gold is very overbought but continues to attract capital. No easy way to trade that scenario. It's the unofficial end of summer with Labor Day weekend on tap. Time for a break.

It was another up and down session with the Dow closing the day with a loss of 120 points. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. Volume was average. We were up around 80 points early in the day. The employment report will be the catalyst for tomorrow and then we have a long holiday weekend. I did purchase some OEX puts in the morning and they are in the black. I'm not sure how long I'll hold on to them. The stock indices are overbought but only on a short term basis. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. GE lost a dime on average volume. No trades there yet and there is no hurry. Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures and a couple more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was higher today. The gold shares were mixed as the XAU gained 1 1/3. ABX up 7/8, GG gained 1 3/8 but NEM lost 1/8. Volume was light. Looks like I should have held those ABX calls another day but as always hindsight is never wrong. I may try them again before the September expiration now as the relative strength is hard to ignore. What's also hard to ignore is the fact that the gold shares are both short and medium term overbought. I'll be keeping an eye on things of course. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. So it's on to the next trade involving the OEX puts. The OEX is a much faster moving contract and that makes it more of a challenge to trade. If we are down tomorrow I'll probably hold the trade over the weekend. We'll see what the employment report brings, gauge the markets reaction and see what happens.

It was another up and down day as the Dow was up 150 early, then grinded all the way back into negative territory before a comeback in the final hour. We ended the day higher by 53 points. Volume was average. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The month of August we just completed was a wild one. Let's hope we don't see a repeat in September. We are short term overbought now and I would like to try the OEX puts for September. Perhaps tomorrow before the employment report as that was the original plan. We'll see. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Not completely overbought here. I'm still looking out to January here. No hurry. Gold was flat on the day and dropped a touch in the aftermarket. The US dollar was higher today. The XAU was off 1/2. ABX down 1/8, GG fell 3/8 and NEM dropped 1/2. We were lower earlier in the day. I dumped the ABX calls. Overbought and staying there but I could not risk holding on any longer. It was a 65% profit and it should have been much more. There's still a chance that ABX moves higher here in the near term before a pullback. I would like to try the ABX calls again for October. Mentally I'm doing OK. Looking for some OEX puts tomorrow. Beginning of the month and possible positive money flows. Employment report on Friday. There will be plenty of data in the next two days and then a long weekend. The trading is never easy. I'm not sure that I have the same feel for things as I did a couple of weeks ago. However I'm going to move forward. If we get the expected drop in the stock indices here I'll have another chance for the ABX calls. If not there is nothing that I can do about it. I'll take the recent ABX trade as a positive and go from there.

It was an up and down session and the Dow ended higher by 20 points. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was lighter than lately. We were down over 100 points early but made it all the way back. I'm still considering the OEX puts before the employment report as we are getting short term overbought. There is the double bottom that is in place to consider also. Still 2 days before the report. GE was up a touch on light volume. No trades there yet for me. Gold had a stellar day, up $40 on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 3 1/4. ABX up 2/3, GG higher by 3/4 and NEM gained a buck. Volume was better. Overbought here both short and medium term. My ABX calls are still in the black but I really need to consider exiting this trade. The gold shares won't remain overbought forever. Maybe I can squeeze another day or two out of this but it may be time to move on here. The US dollar rose today with gold for no apparent reason. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It's a tough call to continue holding on to the ABX trade when I'm looking at the OEX puts for a market decline. However I could also be wrong as the summation index continues to move higher. The employment report on Friday could hold the key. We'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.

We started out the week with a bang as the Dow rose 254 points. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive. Volume was light however. I do not trust light volume rallies but you can't argue with price. The summation index is now moving to the upside as well. If we continue higher into Wednesday I'll probably try the OEX puts before the employment report. We'll see. Approaching short term overbought on the stock indices. GE was up 1/2 on light volume. We had a gap to the upside here but I'm not completely sold that this is the beginning of something big or sustainable. I could be wrong and often am. I'll wait to purchase the January calls here. That is my next trade in GE. Gold fell today as the flight to safety trade waned. We lost $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. That is misleading though since we rallied strong in the aftermarket on Friday. Taking that into account it was more like a $35 loss on the day. The US dollar didn't do much today. The XAU lost 2/3. ABX down 3/4, GG fell 3/8 and NEM was flat on the day. Volume light here as well. My ABX calls are somehow still showing a profit but this trade is really getting long in the tooth. I don't know if I can hold on until the employment report on Friday. Also if my OEX put scenario is correct, the gold shares will probably drop with the overall market. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. The stock indices have made a new recovery high from the recent sell off and closed near their highs for the day. We should see some follow through tomorrow. We do have the last day of the month and beginning of the month positive money flows coming up this week. So we'll see what happens. I get the feeling that gold is going to take a rest here and that won't bode well for the ABX calls. Less than 3 weeks to go there and one less day due to the Labor Day holiday. I'll be taking some extra time to consider this trade tonight.

Volatility was the main product from the Bernanke speech as the Dow closed higher by 134 points. We were down over 200 points early. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and volume was good. The stock indices are deciding which way to go here. I get the feeling that higher prices are coming before we head back down again but I could be wrong and often am. Technically we're not overbought or oversold. A few more up days and we'll be short term overbought. The ideal scenario would be for the beginning of next week to be positive, setting up an OEX put trade for before the employment report on Friday. We'll see. That's the idea at the moment. GE was up a bit on average volume. Plenty of time for the January calls there. Gold was on the move again. The futures gained $35 and it was up another $30 in the aftermarket. The dollar was weaker today and that was without Bernanke saying anything about interest rates. The XAU gained 5 points. I would have liked to have seen more of a gain there. ABX was up a buck while GG and NEM both rose 1 1/3. Volume was lighter than lately again. My ABX calls are still in the black. 3 weeks left in the September option cycle. ABX is on its way to being overbought again. I'll need to consider dumping these calls next week. We could have some beginning of the month money flows at the end of next week and that could be supportive. However gold really had a crazy week and is still very overbought. There is a lot of volatility premium in the gold share options and any slowdown in price movement will rapidly diminish prices. Plenty to consider going forward here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It was the first positive week in the stock indices in a month. So it looks like maybe a short term bottom has been put in place. We'll see. Gold was all over the place, including an over 100 point down day. I'll be checking the charts again over the weekend to decide which path to take next week. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some downside in the stock indices today as the Dow lost 170 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index had turned higher yesterday but has taken on a sideways movement lately. Volatility picked up today in front of the Bernanke Jackson Hole speech. I don't know what the markets are looking for him to say but whatever happens in the market reaction is what to look for. Not really overbought or oversold here on a short term basis, so I guess we could go either way. It certainly hasn't been a slow summer. GE was down 1/4 on average volume. Still waiting for the right time to get the calls there. The gold futures ended up by $5 on the day after being lower early. Gained a bit more in the aftermarket. Not a bad showing considering yesterdays debacle. The XAU gained 3 1/2. ABX rose a buck, GG gained 1 1/8 and NEM tacked on 1/2. Volume was lighter than lately. The US dollar gained a bit today. My ABX calls are still in the black. I'm holding on for now but could exit anytime at this point. Yes there is plenty of time left for them but the tone of the gold market has changed with this weeks 100 point down day. We'll see what gold does after Bernanke. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. All eyes and ears are on the Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. There certainly is a lot of hype for this event and I don't think that it can possibly live up to it. We'll see. It's been a positive week for the stock indices so far and we'll see if they can hold onto the gains.

The Dow continued higher with some follow through to yesterdays gains. It gained 144 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. It is looking more and more as if a double bottom is in place. However we could also just be forming a bear flag from the recent extensive decline. I'm still leaning towards trying the OEX puts, perhaps next week. We'll see what happens for the rest of the week. GE was up almost 1/4 on average volume. Looks like a possible double bottom in place here as well. No hurry for the January calls. Gold was the story of the day as it got relentlessly sold in the wake of the parabolic move upward. As usual, parabolic moves never end well. The gold futures lost just over 100 points. Yes, in one trading day. The gold shares took a hit but it wasn't as bad as the downward move in gold. The XAU fell 4 1/8 but was much lower during the day. ABX dropped 1 3/4, GG lost 1 7/8 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was heavy. The US dollar was up a touch today. Amazingly the ABX calls I own are still in the black. They've lost most of the profit since Monday but there is still a chance for this trade to work. There is still a lot of time left in them. How we close the week will be important. I'll need to see some strength going into the close on Friday. Mentally I'm feeling OK but feel a little groggy today for some reason. Perhaps it was the effect of the huge loss in gold. The stock indices are acting better here, waiting for Bernanke on Friday. I have no idea what he will say but we will have to keep an eye on the markets reaction. That will be the near term key.

The Dow roared to the upside as it gained 322 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The daily charts look like a double bottom in the stock indices. We would have to break through 1200 on the S&P 500 with good volume for this to be valid. Hasn't happened yet. I'm still leaning towards the OEX puts if we rally for a few days. I don't think the summation index has turned back to the upside just yet. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. No hurry to trade there. Gold was the story of the day besides the earthquake on the east coast. It got hammered, down $30 on the futures and another $30 in the aftermarket. Could this be the end of the parabolic move to the upside that we've seen recently? Could be. The XAU fell 5 1/2. ABX down 1 1/3, GG lost 2 7/8 and NEM dropped 1 1/2. Volume was good. The dollar dropped a bit as well today as the flight to safety trade took a breather. My ABX calls are still in the black but they have lost a lot of their value today. I'm still a believer in holding on to this trade but if this weeks action continues negative for gold I'll have to reassess the situation. One day does not a trend make but it's only Tuesday. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. It will be interesting to see if we get any follow through to the upside tomorrow or if this was just a one day wonder for the stock indices. Not much economic data out this week and we have Bernanke flapping his gums on Friday. I'm in a wait and see mode. As for the ABX trade, it's still showing a profit and there is plenty of time left before expiration. But if this is the start of a correction in gold, the trade will not turn out as planned. We'll see how it goes.

It wasn't a quiet summer Monday as the Dow gained 37 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. We were up over 150 points early but could not hold the gains. The summation index continues lower. We are short term oversold here but todays price action doesn't look like a precursor to higher prices. We'll see. I would like to see some type of rally to try the OEX puts again but we know I didn't get the rally before. No hurry as we just began the September option cycle today. GE was flat on the day after opening higher. Volume was good. I'm looking out to the January option cycle here. Again, no hurry as I expect lower prices eventually. Gold continues its parabolic run, up $40 on the futures to a new record high. The US dollar was flat today. I have no idea how long gold will continue to rise. Very overbought and staying there. I can tell you that when it ends, it will end badly. The drop will be as prolific as the rise. The XAU gained 6 2/3 today. ABX up 1 1/4, GG rose 2 1/2 and NEM led the way higher by 2 3/4. Volume was good here. Unfortunately for me, ABX was the laggard. The September calls I own are solidly in the black though. I'm still trying to figure out exactly how long I'm going to hold this trade. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. After a review of the charts over the weekend my ideal scenario for the S&P would be a rally near term as an opportunity to get short. The market rarely cooperates with your ideas though. I don't want to get too greedy with the ABX trade but I still feel we could go a little higher there. Plenty of time left. We'll see what transpires in the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

It was a downer Friday and we closed at the lows for the week as the Dow lost 173 points. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was good. The summation index has turned around and is heading lower. The Dow is trying to hold at its 200 week moving average. Some stock indices have already broken through to the downside. We're oversold here on a weekly and daily basis. However in severe declines being oversold doesn't lead to market rallies. We got a bounce and now are right back at the recent lows. If the transport are any indication of what's to come, we'll be heading lower next week. I have no OEX trades in mind right now but I'll ponder things over the weekend. GE was down 1/4 on good volume. Oversold here as well. I'm still looking out to the January options here but in no hurry. Gold continues to find money as it gained $30 on the futures. Traded another $30 higher in the aftermarket but gave all of those gains back. We're at record highs again. Parabolic and that never ends well. The US dollar lost some ground today. The XAU was up about 4 points but closed off the highs. ABX up 7/8, GG gained 1 3/4 and NEM rose 1 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. My ABX calls are still in the black. Overbought here now but staying there. 4 weeks to go in these options. It is getting harder for me to stay in this trade but I'm a believer in higher prices before they expire so I'll hold on for now. The Gold/XAU ratio is still off the charts in the buy zone. So we'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'll have to check the charts again over the weekend to see I can figure out where we go from here. If the stock indices start to free fall again, it will probably take the gold shares with them. I have time left in the ABX call trade but I do not want to see the gains turn into a loss. It isn't easy winning or losing in this game. I'll think about it over the weekend and go from there. It's Friday afternoon in the summer. Time for a break.

Back to the downside with a vengeance, as European worries spread to the US markets once again. The Dow fell 420 points on heavy volume. The declines swamped the advances by 20 to 1. Obviously the OEX puts were the way to go yesterday. We'll see how we get through option expiration Friday and go from there. It feels like we're ready to fall apart again but we'll have to wait for tomorrow. Any attempt at trying to decide which direction the market goes from here would be even more of a guessing game than usual. GE gapped lower and lost 3/4 on heavy volume. I am still looking at the January calls there but I'm in no rush to purchase. Gold was the safe haven play once again, up about $30 on the futures to a new all time high. The US dollar moved higher in the flight to safety as well. However the XAU followed the stock indices lower by 6 points. ABX down 1/2, GG lost 1 1/4 and NEM fell 5/8. Volume picked up to the downside and that isn't bullish. My ABX September calls are still in the black as the volatility premium got put back into the options with todays action. I'd certainly like to see some upside tomorrow here to close out the week but the way things are going these days who knows? 4 weeks to go here though. Mentally I'm still feeling tired, not sleeping good this week. The market is back in manic mode. No telling how long this will last. There are no quick or easy solutions to what the markets are focusing on. The best plan of attack will be to wait for overbought and oversold conditions and go from there. Staying on the sidelines won't lose you any money but it won't make you any either. Let's see how we get through Fridays expiration and take it from there.

It was an up and down kind of day as the Dow gained only 4 points. The advance/declines were positive. You could make a case for going either way here. With only 2 days to go in the August option cycle, I think the prudent course of action here would be inaction. There is no clear near term signal and the reward would not outweigh the risk. The summation index is still heading to the upside at the moment. I'm also seeing warnings in the media about more selling to come so you can expect the opposite. GE was flat on average volume. GE has basically the same chart pattern as the overall market. No trades there for now. Gold gained $8 on the futures and the XAU tacked on 2 1/4. We did fall back from the highs in the XAU. The US dollar was lower today. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on very light volume. Overbought here now. Nobody is selling right now but they're not really buying either. My ABX calls are still in the black but we really need to see some upwards movement in the underlying stock soon. Time decay will start to set in and any downward action will drop the premiums. I'll ponder things tonight. We are almost at new all time highs in gold itself. Mentally I'm feeling tired today, did not sleep enough or well. Just a couple of days left to trade this week and it seems relatively quiet when you consider what the markets went through last week. Another thing to consider with the ABX call trade is that the volatility premium will start to diminish as well with a quieter market. We are in the middle of August and if things get back to normal now, the market will slow down. So perhaps I won't hold the ABX trade as long as previously planned.

We were a bit weaker today as the Dow lost 77 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We moved off the oversold levels and now the question is where we go from here. The S&P 500 daily candlestick chart is showing a bearish belt hold pattern, implying lower prices near term. I am still considering the August OEX puts if the premiums are in my price range. The risk on this trade would be very high though. We'll see what happens tomorrow. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. No near term trades for me in GE. Still considering a longer term option trade here in the next few weeks. Gold had a good day, the futures were up $27. The XAU fell 2 1/8 though, following the overall market down. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My ABX September calls are still in the black. We're getting overbought on ABX and I will have to think about exactly how long I'd like to stay in this trade. The weekly charts still have room to move to the upside in my opinion. The US dollar was up a touch today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 3 days to go in the August options. The stock indices have worked off their oversold condition but are not overbought at the moment. We probably could go either way here but I'm leaning towards the downside. The summation index did move to the upside yesterday. So it's a mixed bag. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We started option expiration week to the upside as the Dow gained 213 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive. The summation index should turn to the upside with todays market action. I would like to try the OEX puts this week if we call rally up to the 50% retracement level on the S&P 500. That would be around 1225. If the volume continues light to the upside that is where I may attempt the next OEX trade. With only 4 days to go in the August options, obviously this would be a very short term trade. We'll see. GE was up 50 cents on lighter volume as well. No trades here. Keeping an eye on the January calls but will not look to purchase them until we see lower prices once again. Gold rose again, up $15 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was weaker today. The XAU gained 5 7/8. ABX up 1 1/8, GG higher by 1 1/4 and NEM up 1 1/2. Volume was light today and that could be a problem going forward. I do not trust light volume rallies. My ABX calls continue to be in the black but we are reaching overbought status. However the weekly charts still look like they have room to run. If todays drop in the dollar is the beginning of something bigger, then I'll continue to hold the calls. That would support the price of gold here. It also looks like the gold shares are starting to outperform the metal itself and that's a positive going forward. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. I will be getting back to my normal market schedule next week which should bode well for trading. I would like to try the OEX put trade but my schedule for this week may not permit it. We'll have to see how it goes. It's risky, yes. But the opportunity may be well worth the risk.

The Dow closed the week with a gain of 125 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. We were up for most of the day but after such huge point swings this week it seemed like a drift. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The McClellan oscillator is making its way back to positive territory in a hurry. The summation index is trying to turn around here. The weekly S&P 500 candlestick chart looks like it may have put in a bullish hammer. It managed to close the week above the 2oo week moving average. However the jury is still out on what happens from here. I will have to check things out over the weekend and go from there. GE gained almost 1/4 on good volume. I'm going to let some kind of bottom form for GE and then I will purchase some January calls. That is the game plan for GE right now. Could change as we go forward. Gold fell again today, down 9 bucks on the futures. The XAU fell a couple of points. ABX lost 1/3, GG and NEM fell 7/8. Volume was lighter than lately. My ABX calls are still in the black but have lost some of the profit. 5 weeks to go but the weekly GLD candlestick chart looks like a blow off top. Again, I will have to check things out over the weekend and decide what to do next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. It was quite a week and I really do not expect that type of volatility to continue. But who knows? I think at the least we will retest the lows of this week sometime in the next few weeks. But I'm often wrong. I don't think the long term problems in Europe and the US will all of a sudden be solved. But the focus of the markets could move on to something else. Another thing to consider is the presidential cycle and that implies much higher stock levels by the end of the year. So there is plenty to consider going forward. I will check the charts and the numbers over the weekend and go from there. Sometimes the hardest thing to do with a winning trade is to stick with it and not take the quick profit. That is what I'm facing with the ABX trade. I don't want it turning into a loser though either. Time will tell. For now it's Friday afternoon in August and time for a rest.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 423 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 10 to 1 positive. We were up well over 500 points and dropped over 100 in the last half hour. We have traded several hundred point up and down days this week. At this pace we should be down 400 points tomorrow but who knows? This kind of volatility won't last forever. The stock indices are trying to put in a bottom here. It remains to be seen if they will be successful. The McClellan oscillator is working off its very oversold condition. You can really make a case for either way here at the moment. 6 days to go in the August option cycle. I have no OEX trades in mind here and you have to be careful. The premiums have so much volatility in them that as we get towards the end of next week option values will plummet. I'll make a trade if there is a decent set up but otherwise I'll sit things out. GE was up 60 cents on good volume. Oversold and a bounce is expected. I'm looking at the January calls there. If we head back down again, that is a trade that I'm willing to try. Gold got clobbered today as margin requirements to hold the precious metal were raised. The same thing happened when silver went parabolic and it marked the end of the rally. Can history be repeating itself? Gold was off over $30 on the futures. However the XAU was up 3 1/8. ABX and GG had fractional gains while NEM was up 2 1/2. Volume was good again. The gold shares put in a good performance despite the drop in gold. A 400 point rise in the stock market can take some of the credit. The US dollar bounced around today but ended up about unchanged. My ABX calls are still in profit mode. I'll hang on to them for now. Not overbought here yet. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. It has been quite a week and we still have to get through Friday. The volatility has been off the charts. I don't see any short term trades here for me but that could change. Let's see what happens tomorrow and go from there.

The decline got back in gear today as the Dow lost 520 points, wiping out yesterdays gains. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative with heavy volume once again. European worries once again, this time with France in the spotlight. We might actually get a short term buy signal soon if we make a lower low and the McClellan oscillator stays above its low set on Monday. But it hasn't happened yet. The market could do anything here but I think we are either trying to form a bottom here or we're heading much lower. The VIX is out of control and the last time that happened in 2008 the decline was severe. However the McClellan oscillator has already blown out to the downside so the decline may be about over for now. It's a coin flip and that isn't the way to go in this game. Tomorrow could be key. I don't have any OEX trades in mind here at the moment. We'll see. GE fell almost a buck on heavy volume. I'd keep an eye on GE for clues here as well. I'm still interested in the January calls but there is no hurry. GE is around $15 and there is no support below $14. Gold continues to defy gravity, up $40 on the futures to a new record high. The parabolic move continues. The XAU gained 4 1/3 but was higher during the day. ABX rose 1 7/8, GG up 2 3/8 while NEM only tacked on 3/8. Volume continues heavy here as well. My ABX September calls are now solidly in the black. The question turns into how long shall I hold them? Over 5 weeks left for these and we're not oversold on the gold shares yet. I like the fact that in a down 500 market the gold shares found buyers. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. All eyes will continue to be on the stock markets action and reaction to the daily news events. The technicals do count for something but in this type of environment, anything goes. 2 days left in the week and it already seems like it's gone on forever. Multi-hundred point days up and down will do that to you. This summer has been anything but quiet. There will be opportunities in a market like this but you have to be careful. If I had to guess, I'd say we won't see the ultimate low in this move until sometime in October. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The oversold bounce finally arrived after the Fed as the Dow soared 430 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 10 to 1 positive. We gyrated a bit after the Fed but then came a powerful final hour rally. The Fed promised to keep rates low until the middle of 2013. Really? That must be some crystal ball they've got. But that doesn't really matter. What matters is what the markets say. We reached a new extreme negative on the McClellan oscillator and had to start moving higher. I placed an early order for some OEX calls but it wasn't filled. There is so much premium in the index options at this point that they are overpriced in both directions. I still think some money can be made though. I also don't think that the bottom of this rally will mark the low. We'll see. GE was up 1/2 on extreme volume. I'm still thinking of the January calls here but would like to see some base building. Plenty of time for this trade. Gold had a wild day. It reached a new all time high as it was up over $30 at one point. However it has fallen about $50 from there at the moment. The GLD daily chart shows a heavy volume reversal to the downside. Gold could be taking a rest here but we'll see. The US dollar fell on the Fed statement. The XAU followed the overall market higher by 8 1/2. ABX up 1 1/2, GG rose 1 2/3 and NEM gained 1 1/4. Volume was heavy here. My ABX calls are still showing a profit but that won't be the case if we see a sustained sell off in gold. There's still plenty of time for this trade to work but if the stock indices get choppy it could complicate things for the gold shares. Not to mention we will eventually head back down to test this recent low in the stock indices. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The expected bounce appeared. Looking back at previous extreme oversold readings shows that most likely there will be more downside to come. If we reach short term overbought before next Fridays expiration, I'll try the OEX puts. I'm not sure this rally has long legs. But it's only Tuesday. Gold certainly looks like it reversed to the downside today so I will have to reconsider this ABX trade as well. I'll ponder things tonight and try to come up with some sort of game plan going forward.

It's just a free fall panic at this stage. When the US debt was downgraded after the close on Friday, you'd expect Monday to be pretty ugly. It didn't disappoint. The Dow lost 634 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were blown out once again, over 10 to 1 negative. The market is so oversold right now, I don't know what to expect. We are so overdone on the downside that the snap back will be furious. Or maybe not. Some of the stock indices have broken through their 200 week moving averages, others have not. I'm going to check the McClellan oscillator later tonight and if we are below -400 I may try the OEX calls tomorrow. We'll see. This could also be a rerun of the fall of 2008 where we just head lower. Feels like it at the moment. GE fell over a buck on blow out volume. The same question of how long this goes on is in effect. I'm looking at the January calls here but I'm in no rush. Gold rose $60 today. That's not a typo. The flight to gold has now sent gold parabolic. We all know that it never ends well when anything heads straight up. However it could go on for a while as was the case with silver. Silver stopped at a nice round number of $50. Could gold go to $2000? The XAU fell 3 1/3. The gold shares moved fractionally one way or the other on extremely heavy volume. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over $2 at one point. The ABX September calls actually moved higher, although the stock didn't do much. The US dollar was a bit higher. I'm going to hold on to the ABX calls for a while. The stock indices will not go down forever and the gold share calls have 6 weeks left on them. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept more. It's been quite a wipe out in the stock market. It's really anybodies guess where we go from here. Panic does create opportunity. The charts are moving straight down. I'll check the indicators tonight and go from there. There is nothing wrong with sitting it out on the sidelines as well. However if the McClellan oscillator is below -400, I will be seriously looking at the OEX calls.

That was quite a week as the major stock indices basically fell apart at the seams. In the middle of the summer no less. We closed the week with a gain of 60 points on the Dow. However the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. Volume was heavy once again. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index continues to head lower in a hurry. We are still very oversold. The employment report was better than expected but it didn't even matter. The market is now moving simply on price. Nobody knows what next week will bring. I can say from past experience though that there will be at least one huge up day. A 3 or 4 hundred point oversold, short covering rally. Pinpointing the time is the problem. GE was flat today on very heavy volume again. Perhaps we are now sold out here. We'll find out next week. I'll mention the VIX today for a change, as it reached a level not seen since the spring of 2010. It may mean the worst is over for now, depending on what happens next week of course. That's just a guess as usual. Gold lost $7 on the futures but gained it back in the aftermarket. The dollar was lower today. The XAU lost a point but was much lower early. The gold shares were mixed on heavy volume. ABX fell 3/4 and my September calls are now in the red. I am now considering just dumping them next week if we see some rally in the markets. I'll think about it over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There are a couple of trading scenarios for next week depending on how the week begins. I think shorting whatever rally appears may be the best course of action. I do not think we will see a rerun of this week. I could be wrong. We'll have to see what develops over the weekend. I will be checking my longer term charts to see what these type of conditions in the past have led to. Usually it's a snap back rally followed by a retest of the lows. We'll see. It's Friday afternoon and definitely time for a break.

It was a market meltdown as the Dow plummeted 512 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were blown out to the downside. Summation index in free fall. Oversold, staying there and anything can happen at this point. Yesterdays attempt at a bottom failed drastically. I'd like to say that I know when this will all end but I certainly don't. The employment report is out tomorrow and I wouldn't expect any good news there. Perhaps we can get a blow-off move down and start to recover. There will be a short covering rally at some point but the timing is in question. Stock markets around the world collapsed overnight. Probably will see more of the same tonight. Maybe we could see some support at the Dows 200 day weekly moving average but it's still 500 points from here. Stay tuned. GE lost a buck on extreme volume as well. I'm looking at getting some GE calls for the longer term. Meaning next January or March. However in these market conditions I think that it would be better to let some type of bottom form in GE. That may take a few weeks or longer. I'll keep an eye on it and decide the best course of action over the weekend. Gold hit a new all time high before pulling back during the day. It fell by $6 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was very strong today in the flight to safety. The XAU got clobbered, down 12 2/3. ABX off 2 7/8, GG lost 2 7/8 and NEM fell 2 2/3. Volume was very heavy here as well. I did purchase some ABX September calls. However if the market continues its free fall, the gold shares will follow suit. I could have canceled the order but I wanted to do this trade as a back-up to missing out on the OEX puts. ABX isn't extremely oversold here but it is enough for me to give it a try. I think once things settle down, gold will continue to attract capital as a flight to safety since the fear level is now elevated. My thinking is that perhaps gold and the dollar will rise in tandem as they did the last time we had a major market collapse. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK but a bit tired. Could have slept more. Today was interesting but tomorrow could even be more so. Maybe we will see the panic low. There will be opportunities but it isn't easy trying to catch a falling knife. I still don't sense a gripping fear in the marketplace but that could change rapidly. We are very deeply oversold so when the bounce happens, it will be huge. Hasn't happened yet. We'll see what tomorrow brings but be ready for anything.

We finally got some type of bounce from an extremely oversold condition. The Dow gained 29 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The daily candlestick chart on the S&P 500 looks like it has formed a hammer here. That could lead to some more near term gains. We still have the employment report on Friday to deal with. I think that the decline may be done for now but that doesn't mean that it's over. GE gained 1/4 on good volume. No trades here for now. Gold soared another $20 as the US dollar fell. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX and GG each rose about 1/2 while NEM gained a buck. Volume was good again. The money continues to flow into gold related assets. I placed an order for some September ABX calls. If we get some pullback then this order could get filled. Yesterday there was a lot of volume in the September ABX calls. Today the same options open interest expanded. The last time that I saw this, ABX had a nice rally. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The summation index continues to decline at a rapid clip. We are in the danger zone for a crash unless we turn around quickly. However the McClellan oscillator is at a point where previous oversold rallies have started. It's a tough call either way. I'm still leaning towards getting some OEX puts on this bounce. Time will tell.

The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 265 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. Summation index gapping down. Very oversold and staying there. That's dangerous. Possible crash coming or we are in the middle of it. Debt deal is done and the markets don't care. I never did get a chance to get some OEX puts. I think it's too late now unless we see a 3 to 4 day rally. No hint of that coming. Everyone now fears the employment report on Friday. Might be a chance to go the other way but I wouldn't be betting on it. GE was down 3/4 on good volume. Support has been broken. GE led the way down and it is something to keep am eye on for when we eventually head back up. Gold had a great day, up $22 on the futures and almost that much again in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 1 1/4 in a really down market. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on OK volume. The dollar was a bit higher today. The Gold/XAU ratio is solidly on a buy and getting stronger. I think that I'm going to try the gold share calls again. That will have to be my back up plan after missing the OEX puts. We should probably see some downside follow through in the stock indices tomorrow and perhaps that will take the gold shares along for the ride. I'm looking at ABX again. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated on the OEX puts. I don't think that I'll get another chance for them. I've got to forget about that and move on. However we could be on the brink of some type of market meltdown. Opportunities will present themselves if that happens. 8 days to the downside for the Dow. Should have seen some type of sustained bounce but haven't. Gold is soaring but the gold shares lag. This summer has been anything but quiet. I'm going to mull things over tonight and decide what to do in the morning.

A US debt deal is imminent but the Dow still can't rally. We lost 10 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The market opened much higher by over 100 points but could not hold on. We were also lower by 100 points during the day as well. Oversold and staying there. I still believe that we will see some type of bounce soon and that bounce can be shorted. I would like to own some OEX puts before Fridays employment report. We'll see. GE was flat today after some wild swings on good volume. It just about mirrored the overall market. No trades there. Gold lost about $10 on the futures while the US dollar gained some ground. The XAU was up 1 1/8 after being higher early. ABX up 1/2, GG higher by 1/8 and NEM lost 1/4. Volume was light. I may try the September ABX calls if we see a pullback in gold here. I would think that gold would lose some of its luster on a debt deal agreement. If the deal doesn't pass, we could see a pop to the upside on fear. I do however believe a deal will happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm thinking that today we may have set a near term low that will be broken later on in the August option cycle. We are very oversold and a relief rally should appear. I'll be keeping an eye on the OEX puts. That has been the story here for at least a week and it remains so. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow is still being held hostage by the US debt situation as it fell another 96 points today. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was good. Very oversold now and a decent bounce will happen at some point next week. I still think the bounce can be shorted. The summation index is heading lower. It is now just a matter of getting done with the debt deal and going from there. Probably want to have some OEX puts before next Fridays employment report. We'll see. GE was down 1/3 on good volume. We are right at the lower Bollinger band on the weekly charts. It either holds or we go into a waterfall effect. Gold continues to attract money, up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was weaker. However the XAU fell 4 1/3. ABX down about 2/3, GG lost 1 1/4 and NEM dropped 2 1/8. Volume was good. The Gold/XAU ration is solidly on a buy but that hasn't meant anything lately. Perhaps the September gold share calls will be the place to be. I'd wait for a base to build here though. Gold could sell off once the debt problem subsides. Mentally I'm feeling tired. I'm also tired of this debt debacle. It will get solved but it has been strung out to no end. If I had the confidence, I'd have bought some OEX August calls today. It wasn't a good week for me with the losing GG trade. There's still 3 weeks in the August option cycle though. However the increased volatility has really blown out the option premiums. The idea for now is to wait for the bounce and then get some OEX puts. I do not think we will be simply moving back straight up. I could be wrong and often am. Right now it's the last Friday in July and time for a break.

Tried to rally but not just yet as the Dow lost 62 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. We opened higher and were up over 80 points but could not hold the gains. Oversold here and due for some type of bounce but the market is hostage to the US debt news at this point. I still will be getting some OEX puts if we bounce. Summation index heading lower. GE was higher early and couldn't hold its gains as well to finish the day flat. Volume was light. Gold lost a buck while the XAU fell 2 1/4. The dollar was a bit higher today. ABX lost 1/3, GG dropped 1 7/8 while NEM gained 3/8. My GG August calls got clobbered. The earnings were great but the guidance was lousy going forward. It was a 60% loss overnight for me. I made a mistake and I'm moving on. I still like the gold shares if we sell off some more. August and September are the 2 historically good months for the price of gold. Not oversold enough there yet though. Mentally I'm feeling tired, not enough sleep. The market is weak and what happens after a debt deal is reached will be important. We should rally pretty good because the uncertainty will be gone. But if we don't, things could get ugly. I would like to buy some OEX puts next week if the market cooperates. As for the GG trade, I probably shouldn't have tried it but hindsight is always right. My trading since the beginning of the year has been horrendous. In fact I have been in a losing funk for a year and a half. If not for a couple of decent trades early this year I would be way down again. I need to get it together and it isn't easy when confidence is low. I think I will let tomorrow pass and regroup over the weekend.

The Dow got clobbered today, down 198 points. The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 negative. I am not getting a good read on the volume. Oversold here now but that may not matter. The OEX puts were and are the way to go. It doesn't matter if we get the US debt crisis bounce and I hope that we do. That will be the entry point for the puts. The 10 day trin was way overbought and the CBOE call/put ratio was the highest it's been in a while. We are going lower. GE lost about 1/2 on good volume. It was the canary in the coal mine. No trades there still for me. Gold lost a couple bucks and has really held up rather well. The US dollar had a good day in the flight to safety. However the XAU lost 6 1/2. ABX fell 1 1/4, GG dropped 2 1/8 and NEM lost a buck. I bought some GG August calls today and that looks like a mistake. The earnings come out after the close today and that was the risk that I took. The options are already down about 15% from where I purchased them. I should probably just dump them one way or the other tomorrow. We'll see. If the earnings are decent, I'd expect some type of bounce tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling tired. Really not happy about not owning any OEX puts here because that was the trade that I've been waiting for. Summation index is now gapping lower so you know where the trend is headed. I'll hope for a bounce and go from there. As for the GG trade, I was not going to try the gold share calls but when we were down this morning the option premiums got cheap so I gave it a shot. Plenty of time left on the August calls but I don't think this is something to hold on to. Unless we really shoot higher on good volume tomorrow. Remains to be seen. So we'll see the reaction to the earnings and go from there.

Again to the downside as the Dow lost 91 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Still waiting on the US debt problem. Perhaps there won't be any time to buy the OEX puts at this point. However I still believe that there will be some type of relief rally and that will be the time to purchase the puts. We'll see. The summation index has turned around to the downside and I will take my cue from this. GE was down 40 cents on better volume. This is the canary in the coal mine. That is my opinion at the moment. No trades here but the weakness in GE portends overall weakness to come in my opinion. Gold continues to be attracting money and was up another $5 today. The XAU gained 1/3. ABX and NEM were little changed while GG lost 2/3. Volume was light. The US dollar was lower. I'm still considering the gold share calls but they would have to be purchased tomorrow before the earnings on Thursday and Friday. I'm now looking at the GG August calls. The problem is that we are still overbought on the gold shares here but if the earnings come through it won't matter. I'll decide if I want to take the risk tonight. Mentally I'm still a bit tired, did not sleep well again. The Dow has been weaker than the overall market lately and usually that means that we are in for a rally. That is one of the reasons that I am hesitating on the OEX puts. Also I believe that some kind of debt deal will be announced soon and that should lead to some buying. I could be wrong. GG announces its earnings after the bell tomorrow, so if I want to try something there, it has to be done tomorrow. Plenty to consider tonight. However I do not want to make a trade just for the sake of trading. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We started the week off on a sour note as the Dow lost 88 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. I am going to have to decide if I just want to get the OEX puts right now or wait for the next minor rally. I really want to see if we get some kind of reflex rally when a US debt deal is announced. That would be the rally to short in my opinion. However the market may not wait for that as todays action could move the summation index back down again. More overbought than oversold here. Things to think about. GE was down a touch on light volume. No trades in mind here for now. Gold rose again, up $10 on the futures. The XAU lost almost 2 points though. ABX down 1/2, GG lost 2/3 and NEM fell 1/4. Volume was light. The US dollar didn't do much today. Earnings are out later this week. I'm thinking of perhaps getting some gold share calls here in the next couple of days as an earnings play. ABX is the issue that I have in mind. Not sure yet if I'm going to risk it though. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So basically I'm about to attempt another trade and it will be the OEX puts or the ABX calls. I'll ponder things again tonight and go from there.

It was a mixed market today as the Dow lost 43 points today on light volume. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were higher though. The advance/declines were positive. The Dow was negative all day. It still has the feel of a market that wants to go higher. I still am thinking about the OEX puts for sometime next week. GE opened higher but closed lower by 1/8 on its earnings report day. Volume was heavy. I think GE may provide a clue for where we are going here with regards to the stock indices but I could be wrong. Gold rose $14 and the XAU gained 2 1/2. The dollar was higher as well. There was a bombing of government offices in Norway that probably helped the flight to safety trade today. ABX up 2/3, GG gained 1 1/8 while NEM edged higher by 1/8. Volume was light. Overbought and staying there for the gold shares. Not sure about getting the calls here. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'll have to check the charts over the weekend. We are overbought on the stock indices but not excessively. The summation index has turned back up. I have been considering getting some OEX August puts and I still am. I'll decide what to do over the weekend. For now it's Friday evening and time for a rest.

The rally has legs as the Dow gained 152 points on better volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive. We are getting back to overbought on the stock indices but aren't quite there yet. I am now debating on whether to purchase the OEX puts or hold off. This rally so far has thin leadership in my opinion. But that doesn't mean things won't broaden out. It's possible that we are on our way to new yearly highs in some indices. The risk of the OEX puts here isn't justified in taking a position at this time. That's my thought at the moment. GE gained 1/3 on good volume the day before the earnings report. Perhaps the market knows something we don't. If we see some good news there tomorrow it could be telling for the market. Or vice versa. Gold fell 10 bucks today and the US dollar lost ground as well. The flight to safety trade is coming off again. The XAU fell 1 1/8. The gold shares were mixed with ABX and NEM sporting fractional gains while GG dropped over a buck. Volume was average. The gold shares are overbought and I'll need to see an oversold reading before getting the calls there. We will see some movement next week on the earnings. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Trying to figure out the proper course of action here going forward. Still plenty of time on the August option cycle with the extra week added. The market has the feel of wanting to go higher in my opinion. I could be wrong. Let's see what happens with GE tomorrow and the markets reaction to that.

The Dow lost 15 points on light volume today. The advance/declines were positive. It was a lackluster session following yesterdays huge advance. We will see if it was simply a pause before higher prices or not in the next couple of days. The summation index is trending lower but that could change with another good up day. GE was up 1/4 on light volume, moving above the 200 day moving average line. Earnings for GE are due Friday. That should be a market mover. I have no trades in mind here. Gold lost $4 on the futures and gained as much in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 1 1/4. The US dollar fell today but it really didn't do much for gold. ABX, GG and NEM were all up fractionally on light to average volume. Earnings due next week. If we get weakness soon, I'd like to try the August gold share calls. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK but not as focused as I need to be at the moment. That has to change before any type of trade is established. I'm still leaning towards the OEX August puts when we get overbought. We're not there yet.

We got a bounce and quite a bounce it was as the Dow gained 202 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The idea has been to short any bounce and I'm still leaning that way. I am going to try and wait until we are short term overbought which would be later this week or next Monday. However being both short and medium term oversold here could mean more of some type of sustained upside move going forward. I would still like to see the rally from the US debt resolution first before purchasing some OEX puts. We'll see. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. Trying to get above the 200 day moving average. Hasn't happened yet. Gold lost a buck on the futures but was down $15 in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1 2/3. The US dollar fell today as well. It looks like fear took a rest today. ABX off 1/2, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 1/3. Volume was average. If we work off the overbought condition here, I may try the gold share calls for August or September. However I would like to see some pullback first. One day isn't enough. Mentally I'm a bit tired, not enough sleep. Today was quite a move in the stock indices. Sometimes in down markets, rallies spring out of nowhere. That could be the case for today. Or not. There lies the dilemma from here. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow and go from there.

We started the week off with a whimper as the Dow lost 94 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. Summation index heading lower, implying that the trend is down. We are oversold here and I do expect a bounce. The fact that we made up half of todays losses makes me think that we should head back to the upside tomorrow. But who knows? I'm still looking to purchase some OEX puts if we get some positive action in the stock indices. GE was down 1/8 on light volume. Still below the 200 day moving average there. Gold continues to be the star as it set another record high today with a gain of $12 and more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was slightly higher but was up more earlier in the session. The XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all gained at least 3/4 on average volume. I'd look for the calls here as well if we get a pullback. Earnings out next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I suppose I'll wait for a relief rally when the US settles its debt ceiling issues within the next 2 weeks. That's the idea for now.

A mild expiration Friday as the Dow gained 42 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. We opened higher and spent most of the day in positive territory. Still oversold here though in my opinion. I think that we'll trend higher from here for a while but that's a guess as usual. I'm still considering the OEX August puts if I feel the opportunity presents itself. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Still below the 200 day moving average. No trades in mind for GE. Gold was flat on the day but higher in the aftermarket as we approach $1600. The XAU rose 2 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on light volume. I think the gold shares will be going higher even though they are overbought at the moment. I may try some ABX August calls in the near future. The US dollar dropped a touch today. Again, gold had a valid breakout this week in my opinion and the trend is up. Hopefully there will be some type of pullback in order to establish a long position. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. 2 weeks left in the month of July and the summer has been anything but quiet. We'll see if that keeps up all summer. The August option cycle has an extra week on it so there is really no hurry there. I'm going to try and wait for a decent signal and go from there. If the stock indices rally back up to the recent highs, I'll be getting some OEX puts. If the gold shares pull back a bit, I'll be trying the calls there. That is the game plan at the moment. It is a beautiful summer afternoon and time to take a break.

Again we could not hold a gain as the Dow lost 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were well over 3 to 1 negative. Still short term oversold here and I would expect something to the upside very soon. But I certainly don't know how long that would last. The US debt problem is grabbing the headlines for now. I'm quite sure this will be settled soon and that we will see some type of rally when it does. This is the rally that I'd like to get short if it happens. Otherwise we're just going to head lower here and there won't be a chance to get some August OEX puts. We'll see what happens. GE was flat today on average volume. Nothing new to report there really. Gold was up $3 but the XAU fell 1 1/2. The US dollar was flat after selling off early. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. We're overbought on the gold shares but this just may be a pause in the uptrend. Earnings will be out in a couple of weeks. Might try the August calls there but it depends on the overall market itself. However, it was a valid breakout for gold as the volume confirmed it. That must be remembered. Mentally I'm doing OK, another dentist appointment this morning. In order to be successful you've got to pay attention. Only so many interruptions can be tolerated. Expiration Friday tomorrow so we'll have to keep an eye on that. The summation index is probably heading back down after today as well. Interesting times.

We managed a gain today but it wasn't all that pretty as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were up over 150 early but could not hold the advance. I am hoping we get more of a bounce than this in order to position myself with some August OEX puts. We are short term oversold here. GE was up an 1/8 but the daily candlesticks look bearish here. Try to hang around the 200 day moving average here. Gold continued the breakout to the upside, gaining $23. The XAU rose 5 2/3. ABX and NEM gained 1 1/2, while GG added 1 2/3. Volume was good. The US dollar fell today on hints of a QE3. Will it ever stop? Probably not. The July gold share calls were the right play for this option cycle. Perhaps if we get a pullback in gold to the breakout point of this week, maybe the August calls would be correct. However if the overall market tanks it would probably take the gold shares with it. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. The stock indices are acting very weak here and that is strange following such a strong up move recently. I am really not sure what to make of it. 2 days left in the July option cycle. August has an extra week on the options. I suppose I will simply let this week pass and go from there. The volatility increase lately hasn't made things any easier. I really need to be up to the task. I have an idea of what I'd like to do here so we'll see if the market cooperates.

The Dow tried to bounce today but it failed and we lost 59 points on the day. The advance/declines were negative and the volume average. Getting to short term oversold but not there yet. The idea here is to buy some August OEX puts on a bounce if we get a sustained one. Volatility remains above normal for the summer. No big news today but the fact that we couldn't hold the gains of earlier today is not a positive. GE lost about 1/4 on average volume. Just broke through the 200 day moving average to the downside. We never got near the resistance for GE and maybe that was telling for the action we're seeing now. That's a guess as usual. Gold continues to shine here and is breaking out to new highs. It gained $13 and more in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 5 1/2. The dollar was higher today as well. ABX up 1 1/8, GG climbed 2 1/8 and NEM was up a buck. Volume was good. I had a thought early in the day to buy some gold share calls but didn't do it. It looked like they were going to rally and they did. I just didn't take the risk. This looks like a valid breakout for gold and I may just want to jump on board. It will be something to think about tonight. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'm still sticking to my theme of getting some OEX puts for August but I will need to see some upside first. 5 weeks for the August options so they are are bit pricey here. Money is coming back into gold and the gold share earnings are due at the end of the month. Short term overbought here though. Plenty to ponder. I'll check the charts tonight and go from there.

A rough start to the trading week as the Dow fell 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. Back to the troubles in Europe as now Italy is the latest country to unwind. I get the feeling that this isn't going to stop anytime soon. There are only so many times you can bail people out. I'm looking at the August and September OEX puts on a bounce back if we get one. The US debt problem isn't a problem in my mind. Some type of deal will be worked out. Perhaps we'll get a rally on that. The recent up move has been spectacular in my opinion. But I don't think that it has legs now. We'll see. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. It is now back at the 200 day moving average. No trades there for now. Gold was up $7 and that much more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3 1/8. The US dollar put in a good day as well. The flight to safety trade has returned. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I may also try the gold shares for August and September as well if we get to some type of oversold level. If the Gold/XAU ratio climbs above 8, I may put on a trade then as well. However it is hard to get long gold when the US dollar is rallying. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. The summer continues to be overly busy and volatile. This isn't the normal course of things. I will have to make the adjustment. 4 days to go in the July option cycle and I will not be trying anything this week. That's the thought at the moment. So I will look for some type of rally back to the highs of last Thursday and purchase some OEX puts if that occurs.

Some downside action today on the weak jobs report as the Dow lost 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were off by 150 points in the morning. However nothing seems to be able to derail this market at the moment. It has all the signs of going higher, for whatever reasons. Working off the overbought condition for now. I would expect new yearly highs before option expiration next Friday. The market always knows more than you and me. GE was off 1/3 on better volume. I would say that it's a warning sign for the stock indices here but GE has been lagging and not leading. Back below the 50 day moving average on the daily charts. No trades in mind there. Gold was up $11 today but the XAU fell 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were either flat or had small fractional moves on light volume. The dollar gained ground today and it didn't stop gold. Money is moving into gold and I have no reason for it. I suppose I will take a closer look at the gold shares over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The summer has been anything but quiet so far. Unfortunately for me, I haven't been able to take advantage of it. The stock market wants to go higher. I think that will be the case going into expiration week. The usual inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar isn't happening right now. You would expect the dollar to have fallen today on such a weak jobs number. Didn't happen. I'm keeping an eye on things but I really don't have a very good feel or idea what is going on. For that reason, I've remained on the sidelines. I'll be looking at the charts over the weekend to try and find something worthwhile. But for now it's a Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.

It has been an amazing run with no end in sight as the Dow climbed 93 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. I thought it would be a quiet session but that was not the case. The employment report is out tomorrow but there is no stopping this bull run for now. Overbought, staying there and the summation index continues to gap higher. Certainly would have been nice to have some calls at some point in the last 2 weeks. GE was up 1/4 on better volume as it tries to break through the 50 day moving average. We still have yet to rise above the resistance line that began back in February. I suppose GE isn't exactly a leader here. Gold was up a buck and the XAU gained 2 points. ABX was flat, GG gained 7/8 and NEM rose 3/8. Volume was average. The US dollar was weaker today. No trades in mind for the gold shares just yet. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or long enough. So we'll get the employment numbers tomorrow but I get the feeling they won't really matter. Not when you get a bull market thrust like the one we're in at the moment. But nothing I've been thinking of has been correct lately. We will have to wait for the stock indices reaction to the news. The Dow transports have already broken out to new yearly highs. Are other indices to follow? Seems to be what will happen at this point.

The Dow continued its winning ways as we gained another 56 points today on light volume. Light volume seems to be the norm these days. The advance/declines were about even. Overbought and staying there. Summation index continues to go higher. Overdue for a pullback. That said, you don't want to step in front of a freight train either. I don't have any OEX trades in mind except for perhaps some puts before the employment report on Friday. However after the last losing trade the prudent course of action for me will probably be to remain on the sidelines. GE was flat on the day with light volume. Stalling at the 50 day moving average. Gold was up again today, tacking on $16. The XAU gained 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains to the upside on average volume. The US dollar was up again as well. Again, the question is why is gold moving up so much this week? I don't have an answer. Technically speaking we're not even close to overbought yet. Perhaps I'll have to take another look here. The gold share earnings will be out at the end of this month. Mentally I'm doing OK. No summer doldrums yet as the stock indices continue to move higher. I'd expect tomorrow to be a waiting game for the employment report but who knows? I'd like to find a trade for the July options here but nothing stands out. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a relatively quiet post holiday session as the Dow lost 14 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. It was a mixed bag as the NASDAQ showed a slight gain. We're still overbought here but the market has the feel as though it wants to go higher. However some type of pause is due. GE was off a bit on light volume. Still below the downtrend line from February/May. Gold was up $16 after being up $10 yesterday. The XAU gained 5 points. ABX up 1 1/8, GG rose 1 7/8 and NEM gained 2/3. Volume was light. It looks like the RSI positive divergence for ABX is working. I have no explanation for the recent jump in gold. We were oversold but it has been quite a 2 day move. The US dollar was higher today as well. Something is going on but I certainly don't know what. Mentally I'm doing OK. A nice long weekend in the summer is always nice. 8 days left on the July option cycle. I don't really have any trades in mind at the moment. The employment report is out on Friday and that should be the next trigger for some type of sustained move. That's my guess at the moment.

We ended the week and started the second half of the year with a July 4th bang as the Dow exploded to the upside with a gain of 168 points. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive and the volume was light. The gaps in the summation index are expanding and that usually means that the rally has staying power. I left in the open order for the OEX puts and was filled this morning. That was a mistake. Obviously I should have simply canceled the order yesterday when I began to have my doubts about this trade. I bailed out later in the day today for a 30% loss to start the second half of the year. Not a lot of money in this trade but the mental capital drain is always more important. The stock indices had a great week. It's not often that you get an over 5% gain on the S&P 500 but we did it this week. We've broken through the daily downtrend line and the trend is up. GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good. Approaching the 50 day moving average. No trades there for now. Gold did not participate with the rally and lost $20 on the futures. The XAU fell 1 2/3 but was lower during the day. ABX dropped 1/2, GG lost 7/8 and NEM shed 1/4. Volume was light. The US dollar was flat on the day. Gold is losing its luster here for traders. We're oversold on the dollar here though. However the flight to safety trade is no more. Commodities have been falling as well and that isn't supportive to gold. Perhaps I'll look for the gold share calls later this summer. Mentally I'm doing OK. Another losing trade doesn't help matters. But at least when I made a mistake this time, I was able to admit it and get out. It's part of the game. I have no explanation for the markets strength this week. However the market knows things that we don't. Plus the market is never wrong. The fact that we rallied so much today on a day that would normally be quiet and slow says something. Perhaps we're going on to new highs for the year this summer. Time will tell. The long July 4th holiday weekend is upon us. It's a nice summer Friday and time for a rest.