Monday, September 19, 2011
We started the week off with a whimper as the Dow fell 108 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. European worries persist but I think the real trouble is the slow economy. That's my take for now. We were down well over 200 points early. The small stocks are still showing good relative strength so I continue to believe in higher prices near term. We've got the Fed announcement the day after tomorrow as the main news of the week. Prices should move off of that. GE lost an 1/8 on light volume. Getting close to the 50 day moving average on the daily chart for GE. If we can get through there it could bode well for the overall market. Gold dropped $35 on the futures today and the XAU fell 2 points. The US dollar was higher today. The gold shares were mixed with ABX off 1/8, GG down 7/8 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was average. I'm on the sidelines here for now. We are getting oversold though. The plan is to own some calls prior to the earnings releases in October. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. The market seems to want to go higher here. The summation index is still rising. One thing that troubles me though is that the price of copper has broken down. This is usually a good indicator of the strength of the economy. It also has a tendency to be a proxy for the stock indices in my opinion. That is why even though stock prices seem to want to rise here, I'm not inclined to purchase the calls. We'll see what happens as time goes on. Option premiums are high with the extra week in the October cycle. Stay tuned.
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