Wednesday, September 14, 2011
It was the third positive day in a row as the Dow gained 140 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were up twice as much but sold off in the last half hour. When we got to the downtrend line on the S&P 500, I bought the OEX puts. We then raced higher through the line and the puts got slammed. I took the loss at around 65 % in the span of a few hours. This was a trade I should have avoided as I do not do well with the short term options. The market was telegraphing higher prices and I did not listen. I once again tried to impose my idea on the market and the market is always right. That said, as soon as I sold the puts the market dropped back to the downtrend line that it had broken through. The OEX puts that I bought regained their value. So perhaps this trade would have worked. We'll find out tomorrow. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. I should have taken the cue from here, as GE was stronger for the past couple of sessions. Again, I did not listen. Gold lost a few bucks on the futures. The dollar didn't do much today. The XAU lost 3 1/2. ABX fell 7/8, GG dropped 1/3 and NEM down just a touch. Volume here was nothing special. No trades in the gold shares for now. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. I really should have just stayed on the sidelines today. Even if we drop tomorrow, I'm out of the OEX put position. So it's a no win situation and I've already booked the loss. The problem is being able to do the right thing when necessary under market conditions. I think that I just wanted to make a trade without the technicals all in line and I paid for it. I also could have bailed out with a smaller loss but I didn't. So there was nothing good from this trade. 2 days left for the September option cycle and I'll be on the sidelines. I'll have to put today behind me and go from here.
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