Friday, July 01, 2011
We ended the week and started the second half of the year with a July 4th bang as the Dow exploded to the upside with a gain of 168 points. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive and the volume was light. The gaps in the summation index are expanding and that usually means that the rally has staying power. I left in the open order for the OEX puts and was filled this morning. That was a mistake. Obviously I should have simply canceled the order yesterday when I began to have my doubts about this trade. I bailed out later in the day today for a 30% loss to start the second half of the year. Not a lot of money in this trade but the mental capital drain is always more important. The stock indices had a great week. It's not often that you get an over 5% gain on the S&P 500 but we did it this week. We've broken through the daily downtrend line and the trend is up. GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good. Approaching the 50 day moving average. No trades there for now. Gold did not participate with the rally and lost $20 on the futures. The XAU fell 1 2/3 but was lower during the day. ABX dropped 1/2, GG lost 7/8 and NEM shed 1/4. Volume was light. The US dollar was flat on the day. Gold is losing its luster here for traders. We're oversold on the dollar here though. However the flight to safety trade is no more. Commodities have been falling as well and that isn't supportive to gold. Perhaps I'll look for the gold share calls later this summer. Mentally I'm doing OK. Another losing trade doesn't help matters. But at least when I made a mistake this time, I was able to admit it and get out. It's part of the game. I have no explanation for the markets strength this week. However the market knows things that we don't. Plus the market is never wrong. The fact that we rallied so much today on a day that would normally be quiet and slow says something. Perhaps we're going on to new highs for the year this summer. Time will tell. The long July 4th holiday weekend is upon us. It's a nice summer Friday and time for a rest.
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