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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

The decline got back in gear today as the Dow lost 520 points, wiping out yesterdays gains. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative with heavy volume once again. European worries once again, this time with France in the spotlight. We might actually get a short term buy signal soon if we make a lower low and the McClellan oscillator stays above its low set on Monday. But it hasn't happened yet. The market could do anything here but I think we are either trying to form a bottom here or we're heading much lower. The VIX is out of control and the last time that happened in 2008 the decline was severe. However the McClellan oscillator has already blown out to the downside so the decline may be about over for now. It's a coin flip and that isn't the way to go in this game. Tomorrow could be key. I don't have any OEX trades in mind here at the moment. We'll see. GE fell almost a buck on heavy volume. I'd keep an eye on GE for clues here as well. I'm still interested in the January calls but there is no hurry. GE is around $15 and there is no support below $14. Gold continues to defy gravity, up $40 on the futures to a new record high. The parabolic move continues. The XAU gained 4 1/3 but was higher during the day. ABX rose 1 7/8, GG up 2 3/8 while NEM only tacked on 3/8. Volume continues heavy here as well. My ABX September calls are now solidly in the black. The question turns into how long shall I hold them? Over 5 weeks left for these and we're not oversold on the gold shares yet. I like the fact that in a down 500 market the gold shares found buyers. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. All eyes will continue to be on the stock markets action and reaction to the daily news events. The technicals do count for something but in this type of environment, anything goes. 2 days left in the week and it already seems like it's gone on forever. Multi-hundred point days up and down will do that to you. This summer has been anything but quiet. There will be opportunities in a market like this but you have to be careful. If I had to guess, I'd say we won't see the ultimate low in this move until sometime in October. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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