Monday, August 01, 2011
A US debt deal is imminent but the Dow still can't rally. We lost 10 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The market opened much higher by over 100 points but could not hold on. We were also lower by 100 points during the day as well. Oversold and staying there. I still believe that we will see some type of bounce soon and that bounce can be shorted. I would like to own some OEX puts before Fridays employment report. We'll see. GE was flat today after some wild swings on good volume. It just about mirrored the overall market. No trades there. Gold lost about $10 on the futures while the US dollar gained some ground. The XAU was up 1 1/8 after being higher early. ABX up 1/2, GG higher by 1/8 and NEM lost 1/4. Volume was light. I may try the September ABX calls if we see a pullback in gold here. I would think that gold would lose some of its luster on a debt deal agreement. If the deal doesn't pass, we could see a pop to the upside on fear. I do however believe a deal will happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm thinking that today we may have set a near term low that will be broken later on in the August option cycle. We are very oversold and a relief rally should appear. I'll be keeping an eye on the OEX puts. That has been the story here for at least a week and it remains so. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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