Sellers had the upper hand today as the Dow fell 570 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The resistance of the 50 day moving average combined with the short term down trend line was too much to overcome this time around for the S&P 500. The short term indicators here are rolling over. Perhaps the Fed can save things tomorrow with some dovish comments but that remains to be seen. More likely is a retest of the recent lows, at least that's my best guess right now. Probably too late for the SPY May puts as the move lower has already began. Gold got clobbered today as the futures were off over fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 6 1/3, while GDX lost 1 2/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down and still have room to go. Do I still want to try the GDX May calls here? Yes but I'm not as sure about this idea as I was before. I'll look things over again tonight and decide whether to place an overnight order in or not. GOLD reports earnings before the bell tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today which fits a down market. Back above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages again. Still short term oversold on the VIX so perhaps this decline has legs. The Fed isn't expected to make any change in interest rates tomorrow. What is said in the speech afterwards will determine the near term market direction. I certainly don't know what to expect. We still have Fridays jobs report to go through as well. Beginning of a new month tomorrow so we might have some capital inflows. Eranings reports will be ongoing as well. The only thing we can say with any confidence is that it probably won't be boring. Perhaps we'll be able to find a trading opportunity. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

Hanging around on a Monday as the Dow added 146 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. Waiting on the Fed and that won't happen until Wednesday. Perhaps earnings can get things going tomorrow. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were slightly higher today. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving up. However it remains just below its 50 day moving average and the short term down trend line that is in place. A bump above those levels on good volume would be a positive. Remaining patient with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was off a buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX added almost 1/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up. I still like the idea of the GDX calls but will wait for some kind of pullback before attempting this idea again. So we watch and wait for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. Short term oversold now on the VIX. End of the month tomorrow so that might influence the market action just a bit. But we are really just waiting for the Fed press conference and the market reaction as to what is said. Asia higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye out for any overnight developments.

The inflation data came in where expected but it was the earnings reports that drove the market today as the Dow rose 153 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. We had a gap up at the open and things moved higher from there. The NASDAQ was by far the leader today as it was up over 300 points. It appears that the recent deline has ended but the S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. It is just below the down trend line that is now in place on the daily chart. Another day like today will get us through. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was average. I still am in favor of the GDX May calls if we see some pullback next week. The short term indicators here are north of mid-range. GDX is overbought on a longer term basis though. However it seems as though money continues to find a home in the gold shares and we cannot ignore that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Still above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Getting below those levels would be a plus for the bulls and imply higher stock prices going forward. Three weeks to go in the May option cycle. We've got the end of the month next week along with a Fed meeting and the jobs report. Earnings are ongoing as well. So there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move. We'll be going over all the charts as usual to try and come up with some sort of game plan. Europe and Asia finished higher with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility made a comeback today as the Dow fell 375 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. We had a huge gap down at the open as it looked as though things were going to fall apart. But they didn't. After the first half hour the market climbed higher the rest of the day to cut the losses. The Dow was the under performer on the session. GDP came in light and META disappointed on its earnings report. The S&P 500 finished well off of its lows for the day. The short term indicators look like they are beginning to stall. But the fact that it held up today I think bodes well going forward for the bulls. We'll see what happens with the inflation news tomorrow. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued to rise. The gold shares had a stellar day as the XAU climbed 4 1/8 while GDX jumped over 1 1/8. Volume was very heavy to the upside. The gold indices were helped by NEM rising 12% on its earnings numbers. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls as I've missed this move higher. I might decide to chase things here as money continues to pour into the gold shares. Gone and already forgotten was the seventy dollar drop in gold on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as my order for the GDX May calls this week wasn't filled. Perhaps I just did not place it properly but there is plenty of time left in the May option cycle. Al least the idea is working as we cannot deny the interest in gold the past couple of months. The VIX was down today which doesn't fit with a down market. Getting to short term oversold on the technical indicators. Still above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the VIX. Not sure what to expect next here. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trade. We'll check the market reaction to the inflation data tomorrow.

Back to hanging around again as the Dow lost 42 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn around. Not much movement in the major averages with the exception of the TRAN which had a big drop. The S&P 500 remains below its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators have turned back up. GDP out tomorrow and that may be a market mover. More so the inflation data out on Friday. Remaining patient for now with regards to the SPY May options. Gold fell $10 on the futures. The US dollar was up slightly along with interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. My open order for the GDX May calls remains out there. The gold shares are holding up for now despite the drop in gold itself. That should be a plus going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. Not sure what's next here for the VIX. Volatility has come down from recent levels as it seems like the market is simply waiting for Fridays inflation numbers. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Continuing higher as the Dow rose 263 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Is the recent decline over? Probably. We can't rule out a retest of the lows and that would tell the story. But some indicators reached extremes last week. Perhaps the major selling is over. The S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators have turned back up. It is still short term oversold but not as much as before. Earnings have a chance to keep things afloat. But we'll have to wait and see how the rest of this week plays out. Gold lost $9 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a minor dip. The XAU added over 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2. The gold shares up with gold itself down is a plus for the gold bulls. Volume was a bit above average for the gold shares. My open order for the GDX May calls wasn't filled and I'm leaving it out there. My hope is that GDX trends sideways to down in the near term and the order gets filled. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are oversold but not extremely so. There is plenty of time left in the May option cycle that we will be patient with this idea for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators there moved lower as well. The VIX remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go on Wednesday.

Finally got a bounce today as the Dow was up 253 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is slowing its descent. The NASDAQ led the way higher but stock indices did finish well off of the best levels on the day. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but the indicators here have turned up for now. Sometimes the Monday after option expiration moves in the opposite direction of Fridays activity. That could be what occurred today. We'll know more as the week goes on. Plenty of big tech earnings this week. We'll also get a look at 1st quarter GDP along with inflation data later in the week. Option premiums are expensive so we'll remain on the sidelines for now with respect to the SPY. Gold plunged today as the futures fell seventy bucks. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. The XAU lost 5 points, while GDX shed 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. The gold shares had a gap lower to start the day and never recoverd. The up trend line that began in March for GDX was broken. The short term indicators here are moving lower but not yet oversold. That said, I did place an open order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. It would not be a surprise for GDX to head back to the down trend line that it broke on the weekly chart a few weeks ago. That comes in at around a point or so from todays close. GDX would have to drop down there for my option order to be filled. That is the next trade on our radar, subject to change as conditions change of course. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving lower and are about mid-range. The VIX looks like it wants to continue down on the daily chart which would benefit stocks. But I haven't had a good feel for the VIX lately. Plus stocks did not exactly finish on a robust note today. We'll see. Europe and Asia were up to start the trading week. I'll keep an eye out on the overnight developments.

The overall market continued lower but the Dow managed a gain of 220 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ led the way down again and was off over 300 points. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is at indicator extremes. Buyers are nowhere to be found. Fears about geo-political conflict have taken over the markets. Markets that don't bounce after reaching oversold can be dangerous. Although the Dow saw some upside the smaller stocks did not and that's a problem going forward. We are on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $4 on the futures after being much higher during the session. The US dollar finished flat as did most interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on about average volume. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and the short term up trend line remains intact. I still like the idea of the GDX calls going forward but will try and wait for a signal before trying them again. GDX is overbought on both a short and medium term basis. However in strong uptrends these conditions can last for a while. If we see some weakness next week perhaps we'll try the calls here again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but well off its highest levels on the session that took it above the important 20 level. The short term indicators here remain overbought but not have turned lower. Not sure what's next for the VIX. An interesting week as the market kept dropping and we never did see any kind of sustained bounce for stocks. But the market knows things that we do not. Moving into the May option cycle next week. We'll be checking the charts and keeping an eye on the news headlines as the weekend goes by. Europe finished mixed and Asia was lower with the exception of India to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even again. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower again as well. Still waiting for the long overdue bounce. The S&P 500 finished in the red remains short term oversold. Could the bounce come tomorrow? Perhaps. I did think about getting the SPY April calls near the close but with only Friday to go in the April option cycle I didn't do it. I could certainly make a technical case for giving it a shot. But the short term trades are not my best efforts and we'll roll into the May option cycle with regards to the SPY. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares finished off of their best levels on the day. I sold my GDX April calls for a gain of 50% and it should have been twice that. The exit this morning was horrible as I did not execute it the way I had planned. This trade had a mediocre entry and a terrible exit. I really need to get better at the short term stuff or simply avoid it. I think one of the reasons I looked at the SPY April calls today was because of the lousy end to this trade. That could be a recipe for disastor because win or lose you have to move on. Where you get in and where you get out will determine success or failure in this game. You certainly cannot let one trade affect the next. We know these things yet the struggle persists. It is the nature of the game. Mentally I'm frustrated from my effort and results of the GDX call trade. But it doesn't matter now. The up trend line for GDX on the daily chart reamins intact for now. The VIX was lower again today which doesn't fit with the overall market weakness. Not sure what to make of it. Asia and Europe finished higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week on expiration Friday tomorrow.

Still moving down with no bounce to be found as the Dow lost 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was much lower than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. Short term oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500 and that could be troublesome as we should have seen some kind of upside bounce by now. The TRAN has broken down. The McClellan oscillator is very negative and staying there which doesn't usually happen. Not sure what to think here but there's only two days to go in the April option cycle so trading the SPY options is not something we are going to do here. Would think that the calls would be the way to go in the short term but that obviously wouldn't have worked out this week so far. Gold was off almost twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains good here. The opposite of yesterday as today gold was down and the gold shares were up. The short term indicators for GDX are still mid-range. My GDX April calls are still showing a profit and are running out of time. GDX did finish off from the best levels of the session. I suppose we'll give them one more day but I should be out of this trade tomorrow. The up trend line in GDX has held for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that still doesn't fit with a down market. The VIX remains short term overbought. Not sure what is going on in the stock market at the moment as buyers are scarce. The usual positive expiration week bias hasn't shown up. The market knows more than we do though. Should have seen some kind of bounce this week but so far it hasn't happened. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks tried to bounce today but it was mostly in the Dow as the most watched index gained 63 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Every attempt at buying today was met with sellers. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted small losses. The S&P is now short term oversold so I'm expecting some kind of attempt at a bounce here soon. The S&P 500 is below its 50 day moving average and now has a down trend line in place. The McClellan oscillator is very negative here and it usually doesn't stay that way for long. So we should at least see some short term upside for stocks in the near future. Gold was up $23 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume remains good for the gold shares. Gold up and the gold shares down is not a positive. GDX has closed right on its up trend line at the 33 level after breaking well below it early on. I did leave my open order for the GDX April calls out there and it was filled this morning. The entry was not that great and I could have done better. Plenty of risk with this trade as we only have three days to go. I'm counting on the up trend line holding things for GDX but it certainly didn't this morning. The trade is showing a slight profit as of the close today. I'm not sure how long I will hold it but probably will be selling it sooner rather than later. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall lower market. It remains short term overbought. I don't know what to expect next from this indicator. We are in the next trade which won't last longer than the end of this week. Hopefully the market will see a bounce and take the gold shares with it. But we don't trade on hope. If the up trend line for GDX remains valid this trade will work out. If not it will be a loser. The short term indicators for GDX are about mid-range so we believe the trade has a shot. I could be wrong. Europe and Asia sold off last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the market gapped up at the open only to turn around and drop for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 248 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. Not a good start to the week as the positive option expiration bias is nowhere to be found. The S&P 500 is almost at short term oversold. It closed below the 50 day moving average today. It's due for a bounce but at this point that is probably all it will be. We can make a case for support at the 5000 level but beyond that it would be 4800. No trades in mind for the SPY here. Gold rose $29 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were up as well. The XAU dipped 1 3/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume remains heavy for the gold shares. I did put in an order for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there but the risk is high with only four days left in the April option cycle. GDX did make it down to the up trend line at 33 this morning and bounced. I'm hoping for another trip to that line and it holding again to get my option order filled. If GDX breaks the line this trade won't work. GDX is still overbought so the risk is more than usual plus the April options will expire on Friday. I'll reconsider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and closed above the 19 level. It is almost completely short term overbought. Not sure what it will do tomorrow but stocks should see a bounce soon. Sellers have the upper hand for now. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Selling from the start today with a gap lower as buyers were nowhere to be found. The Dow lost 475 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down today. Not sure exactly what is going on here but the market always knows more than we do. Geo-political tensions will probably be the excuse for todays drop. The S&P 500 is getting to short term oversold and is almost at its 50 day moving average. I thought that we would build on yesterdays rise but I was wrong. I suppose we should have taken our cues from the summation index but hindsight is usually correct. We keep moving on from here though with a week to go in the April option cycle. Pretty sure that we'll have to stay on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold had a dramatic one day downside reversal as the futures fell a dozen after being up around $75. The XAU lost 2 1/2 and GDX shed almost 3/4. The gold shares were also much higher early on. Volume exploded as everybody here headed for the exits. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped in what looks like a flight to safety. All good things come to an end and this could be it to the upside for the gold shares and gold for now. However there is the short term up trend line for GDX that comes in at the 33 level. If we get down there on Monday I will be tempted to try the GDX April calls for a short term trade. Very risky though as we saw today just how fast markets can turn one way or the other. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher but finished off of its highest levels for the day. The short term indicators here have now turned back up and are not yet overbought. I have not had a good handle on what the VIX has been implying lately. I'm not about to try and guess what will happen here next with the VIX. We'll keep an eye on it though. Quite an interesting session today for the markets. We'll have our work cut out for us when checking the charts over the weekend. There is something going on, we just don't know what it is. I'll be watching the weekend headlines a bit more closely. Europe was mixed and Asia lower with the exception of Japan to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

To the upside today for the broader market but the Dow had a loss of two points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving lower. After a brief morning sell off stocks took off higher. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and the NASDAQ was up over 250. The Dow was the laggard. The inflation data came in about where expected and not as hot as we thought. The S&P is now mid-range in a channel that it has been constructing for the past month. The Bollinger bands continue to get tighter so a big move is forthcoming. Which way is the question. The short term indicators for the S&P are mid-range as well so you can make the case for either direction. Perhaps we'll get a burst higher from here for option expiration week to new all time highs. Or maybe the bears will finally take control. Sideways is the only other choice. We just don't have a good signal right now for the SPY options so we'll remain on the sidelines with regards to that. Gold jumped $44 on the futures today. It has taken on a life of its own. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were a touch higher. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was average. My order for the GDX calls wasn't filled and I canceled it. GDX remains extremely short term overbought. The volume was lighter today which leads me to believe that perhaps this dramatic move higher is running out of steam. However the rally in the gold shares is so strong you really don't know where it will end. I would like to try the GDX April puts again but that may not be the smartest thing to do here. It could be that we might have to let the April option cycle run its course without a trade. We only saw a one day decline in GDX on the sell signal that was triggered. I'll consider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after hitting a new recent high in the morning. The daily chart here looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators on the VIX are pointing down with room to go. It is implying higher stock prices in the near term. So perhaps we'll see the rally in stocks return as liquidity could come back into the market. That's just a guess as technically things appear to be about even right now. However the big move in the NASDAQ today could be a sign of things to come as another day like today would lead it to new all time highs. Asia was mixed and Europe lower again in the overseas trade. I would expect those markets to follow the US higher on Friday. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The inflation data came in a little hot and markets sold off as the Dow fell 422 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. Much of the decline came early in the day with sideways activity for the rest of the session. It could have been worse but it wasn't. The Dow was the under performer today. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 had a big drop. The S&P 500 is getting to short term oversold. Tomorrows PPI should be above expectations as well so we'll have to wait and see how the markets respond to that. I'm beginning to think that the decline here will be more sideways than down. Gold was off $14 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates spiked up. The gold shares sold off at the open but then came back as the demand just doesn't stop. The XAU fell around 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2 after being down over a point. Volume was good. My order for the GDX April puts wasn't filled and I canceled it. GDX remains short term overbought but I am putting in an order for the GDX April calls again. It might get filled if we see another spike down for GDX tomorrow morning. The sell signal that one of our indicators gave for GDX was valid but it doesn't look to be long lasting in this case. It appears to me that the gold market is taking on a life of its own and we'll try to take advantage of that. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are turning back up. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it is above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a back and forth session ahead of tomorrows inflation data and the Dow finished the day with a loss of 9 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower but now trying to turn back up. The market opened higher, then had a steep morning sell off only to come back in the final hour of the day. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains. My open order for the SPY April puts wasn't filled and I canceled the order. The short term indicators for the S&P remain at mid-range so it could go either way tomorrow. I still believe that the inflation data will come in above expectations and expect a market sell off. But the technical set up isn't clear so I'll have to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was up $17 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 3 points and GDX was up 5/8. Volume continues to be good for the gold shares. I am taking the risk here and put in an order for the GDX April puts which I am leaving open overnight. GDX will have to rise some tomorrow for this trade to be filled. This is a better technical set up and GDX is extremely short term overbought. We are also getting a sell signal on another of our short term indicators for GDX. But that doesn't mean that GDX can't simply remain overbought which is possible considering all of the money coming into this sector at the moment. How GDX reacts to the inflation data remains to be seen. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today but did finish lower. The short term indicators have rolled over. The VIX is implying higher stock prices going forward but I'm not so sure about that myself. Running out of time on the April option cycle with a week and a half to go. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how the inflation data looks and the markets reaction to it on Wednesday.

Running in place today as we basically had a sideways affair. The Dow fell 11 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Most stock indices finished flat as the market is apparently waiting for the inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. The S&P 500 was little changed with the short term indicators here at mid-range. I did place an order for the SPY April puts that I'm leaving out there overnight. It will take some gains in the market tomorrow to get filled. I would like to own the puts ahead of the inflation news but the premiums remain high. The data could be positive for the market which would make owning the puts a losing proposition. But I'm expecting the CPI to come in hotter than expected along with the PPI. I could be wrong. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The gold shares stalled today. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on above average volume. If I do not get the SPY April puts tomorrow I may try the GDX April puts instead. This would certainly entail much risk as so much money is pouring into gold and the gold shares at the moment. However one of our indicators for GDX is at the point where things normally turn around and head lower. We'll look again at this again tonight and decide what to do. I also don't want to put on a trade just to make a trade. But we can be pretty certain that the markets are going to get moving on Wednesday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and the short term indicators here have turned down or are in the process. This is another reason to be cautious with regards to the market downside prognosis going forward. Perhaps the inflation data will in fact be worse than expected and the market shruggs it off. Trying the SPY puts here doesn't have the best technical set up. The trading is never easy. Europe was up and Asia generally higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Bouncing back as the Dow rose 307 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. The jobs report was better than expected and markets rallied. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up. Does the rally simply continue from here? That is the question and I'm not so sure. Today could be just the beginning of a snap back to the recently broken up trend line. The weak volume provides a clue there. Inflation data out next week and my idea says the numbers will be high. But we'll have to see what the expectations are. How the market reacts to the data on Wednesday and Thursday will determine the path for next week. I'm looking at the SPY April puts but the technical set up is not as solid as I would want. Gold just continues to power higher regardless of the data. The futures there climbed $34. The US dollar was up but off from the best levels on the day. Interest rates rose. So as you can see for gold it doesn't seem to matter what rates, the dollar or the stock market is doing. The XAU was up 3 3/4 and GDX climbed over a buck. Volume was heavy and the money just pours in to the gold shares. GDX is extremely short term overbought and about as far away from its 50 day moving average as it can get. Can it get move overbought? Yes. Can it get further away from the 50 day moving average? Sure. But the gold shares along with gold are moving straight up. And we all know how that ends. The trouble is you don't exactly know where and when it will turn around. That said, I am now looking at the GDX April puts for a short term trade. We already missed this leg up in GDX but it has to run out of steam at some point. The problem is that so much money is behind this move trying the puts could be the equivalent of stepping in front of a freight train. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today but still closed above its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators are trying to turn down. Not sure what to expect next here for the VIX but moving lower seems to be the most likely probability. That would coincide with stocks moving back up. There will be plenty to ponder when going over the charts this weekend. There's still two weeks to go in the April option cycle so plenty of time for some type of trade. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a dramatic one day downside reversal for the Dow as it gapped up to start the day only to roll over and finished with a loss of 530 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move lower. Sellers took over halfway through the session and didn't stop. The short term up trend line for the S&P 500 has been broken. The short term indicators there have rolled over and are heading down with room to go. I had been looking at the SPY April puts but it may be too late. Perhaps the market knows more about tomorrows employment numbers than we do. Or maybe things bounce back tomorrow like today never happened. It will be interesting, that much we can count on. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains good for the gold shares. GDX remains short term overbought. I still want to try the GDX April calls if we get some pullback within the next couple of weeks. GDX remains pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that condition won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped and closed above its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators for the VIX are getting to short term overbought but not completely there yet. Yesterday the VIX daily chart had the appearance of wanting to go lower but in fact did just the opposite. Not everything appears as it is and the indicators move where they want just like the market. We can only put the probabilities on our side but thay won't work every time. Europe and Asia were mixed in the overnight trade. We'll see how the market reacts to the employment data tomorrow.

An up and down session today as the Dow dropped 43 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is an upward sloping sideways channel. The overall market was positive but not by much. It has been a weak start to the month of April. The S&P 500 is still on the overbought side. The Bollinger bands are contracting which forecasts that a big move is coming. Which way is the question. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options. Gold continues to climb as the futures gained $35. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume remains plenty good to the upside for the gold shares. Overbought to the extreme on GDX as we will wait for some kind of selling before attempting the GDX calls again. I missed this move for sure and it isn't a good feeling. Markets don't care and you've just got to keep going in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. The short term indicators are trying to roll over at the mid-range level. This would imply some upside for stocks in the coming days. We'll see. Europe was up and Asia down in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The day began with a gap lower and finished with negative results. The Dow fell 396 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to a sideways configuration. The market opened down and moved sideways to higher for the rest of the session. The Dow led the way lower again. Not a good start by the bulls for the month of April. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but they remain short term overbought. If tomorrow continues to the downside you could make a case that the rally is in question but that hasn't happened yet. We are overdue for some kind of decline but haven't seen one for months. We'll know more as the week goes on. Gold continues to attract money as the futures were up $40. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX added 3/8. Volume was good to the upside. Yes I would still like to get some of the GDX April calls. GDX is still short term overbought and pretty far from its 50 day moving average. We'll need to see some kind of pullback before attempting the calls because it is obvious that the train has left the station. However money keeps pouring into gold and that cannot be ignored. Not exactly sure what's going on but we also know things can turn on a dime in the other direction as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did close below the highs on the session. The short term indicators here have turned higher and have room to go. The VIX is now above its 50 day moving average and closed on the 200 day. The daily candlestick chart has the look of wanting to move lower from here though. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Some minor selling to kick off a new month as the Dow fell 240 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall once again. The selling was concentrated in the Dow as the S&P 500 posted a small loss and the NASDAQ had a slight gain. It was a quiet session after a long weekend with some overseas markets still closed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with the continued up trend. There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that these conditions won't just simply continue. We'll get a break in trend at some point but I certainly don't know when that will be. Waiting on a decent signal one way or the other to try the SPY April options. Gold was higher but off of the best levels on the day. The futures here rose $23. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was up 3/8. Volume was good. I'd still like to purchase some GDX April calls but we are late to the party. Waiting on some type of pullback as GDX is short term overbought and above its upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. GDX has made it through the long term resistance and the trend is up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off of its best levels. The short term indicators have turned up but there doesn't seem to be much conviction. The VIX is still below its 50 day moving average. Still a little less than three weeks to go in the April option cycle. Plenty of time to get something done. Some economic data out this week topped by the jobs report on Friday. Plenty of Fed speak also. So we'll see how it goes. Asia was slightly higher with the exception of Japan and Europe was closed. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.