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Wednesday, November 01, 2023

The Fed spoke and the market liked what it heard as the Dow gained 221 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. Rates were left unchanged as expected. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving higher with plenty of room to go. The S&P closed just below its 200 day moving average. We are hoping for some kind of near term pullback for the opportunity to purchase the SPY November calls but it may already be too late. The bottom is in as far as we're concerned. Declines can be purchased in my view. Still plenty of time left in the November option cycle. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX finished mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on heavy volume. The volume for the gold shares has picked up but is still deciding exactly which way it wants to go. My GDX November call position remains solidly in the red for now. Getting to short term oversold on the indicators for GDX but not completely there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is approaching short term oversold. Comfortably below the 20 level on this technical indicator now. All in all the evidence suggests that higher stock prices are in our future from here. We'll hope for some kind of pullback near term but that just may not happen. Next up is the employment report on Friday. We'll see how the markets react to that. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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