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Monday, November 20, 2023

Still moving up as the Dow climbed 203 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that's a plus. Technical conditions remain the same, short term overbought and staying that way. It has been a straight line up and this cannot go on forever. These kind of moves usually don't end well but we'll have to wait and see what happens this time around. Sellers have disappeared. It is a holiday week so some of the players won't be at their desks. We just moved into the December option cycle so there is plenty of time for a trade. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume. The short term indicators here remain at mid-range. My GDX December calls are still losers although the gold shares held up well despite the small drop in gold itself. The gold shares were probably just following the overall market today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again today and is extremely short term oversold. I'm not saying that the VIX is implying some kind of decline coming up but this conditon needs to resolve itself because it too cannot go on indefinitely. Europe and Asia began the week mixed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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