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Thursday, November 30, 2023

A mixed market to be sure to finish the month. The Dow roared ahead by 520 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to climb. The S&P 500 posted a modest gain while the NASDAQ had a small loss. The Dow leading the way is not the most bullish scenario. Inflation data came in where expected. We'll get some talking heads tomorrow courtesy of the Fed. Plus the beginning of a new month. The markets techncial conditon remains the same. Short term overbought for an extended length of time and remaining that way. Overextended from the 50 day moving averages as well. We've gone sideways for over a week and that will have to resolve itself at some point. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. The fact that they didn't drop with the loss in gold itself is a plus. But GDX remains short term overbougt as well. My GDX December calls are still solidly in the black. How to manage this trade from here will be my main concern for now. However I think that perhaps the SPY December calls may be an idea at some point before option expiration. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished practically unchanged today and remains short term oversold. It has been short term oversold for practically the whole month of November. This coincides with the rally that we've seen. Once again these conditons do not last forever. We'd like to see a rise in the VIX and a decline in the S&P in order to try the December SPY calls. Markets rarely cooperate though. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll begin a new month but close out another trading week tomorrow.

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