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Monday, November 06, 2023

Just hanging around today as the Dow gained 34 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving higher. Slight gains for most of the major averages today as the market has to digest last weeks run up. We would not be surprised to see some selling this week and that could set us up for the SPY November calls for option expiration week. Friday is a partial holiday for Veterans day. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are overbought. I do think that some kind of rolling over will take place. The next down trend line of resistance comes in around 4400 but I think that we'll head lower before attempting to cross that line. Perhaps we'll get a shot at the SPY November 430 calls but we'll see. Gold fell $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators here are trying to roll over. My GDX November calls are now showing a small loss. Not sure what's next here but on the daily chart GDX is potentially forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Volume has picked up in the gold shares but I'm not sure what that means. If the inverse pattern is for real, the measuring objective for GDX would be 34. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged on the day. The short term indicators remain oversold. Not sure what to expect next here. A lot of Fed speak this week but it's light on economic data. Asia up and Europe down to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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