Wednesday, November 29, 2023
We had a one day reversal to the downside for most of the major averages today but the Dow managed a gain of 13 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have a bearish candlestick after todays price action. The short term indicators are beginning to possibly roll over and we are still short term overbought. End of the month tomorrow and I don't know how that will affect things. We are still way overdue for some type of decline for the S&P but we'd only be guessing if we said it would be now. Again, we'll let the market decide what to do next. Still looking at the SPY December calls if we see some pullback. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU was off 1/3, while GDX finished flat. Volume was average. The gold shares took a breather after yesterdays stellar gains. Still short term overbought for GDX but in rallies it can stay that way. We'll continue to hold on to the GDX December calls for now. Plenty of time left in the December option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and the short term indicators have turned up. Still short term oversold here but not at extremes. The VIX implies that we could see some near term selling but it has been hard for me to figure out lately. Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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