Tuesday, November 28, 2023
More of the same today as the Dow rose 83 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index continues higher. Most of the major averages had slight gains today but we did see some volatility during the session. The extended short term overbought condtion for the S&P 500 remains in place. We've been sideways here for a week. I would guess that we'd break higher from here and remain overbought but who knows? Overdue for some type of pullback but we'll let the market tell us what it's going to do. Gold was up over $25 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained over 4 3/4, while GDX climbed 1 3/8. Volume was heavy to the upside while breaking through the level of 30 which was the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern validating that. The target for the pattern lies at 34 but there is a longer term down trend line on the weekly chart that comes in at 33.25. If GDX could somehow break through that level on good volume it would imply that we've got much higher to go. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. My GDX December calls are now solidly in the black. I canceled the open order for the GDX January calls as the prices have moved past where I was willing to buy but I still like that idea going forward. We'll manage the December trade as best we can and then try and move to the January option cycle. Ideally we'll make a run to 33 in GDX and exit the December trade. Then hopefully see some kind of pullback towards the neckline and then purchase the January calls. But markets rarely cooperate with the best laid plans. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the session and well off of its highs for the day. Volatility did return but failed to manifest itself in price. Not sure what that implies. Still short term oversold to the extreme on the VIX. Only a couple of days left in this months trading. Asia and Europe finished mixed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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