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Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Inflation data came in lighter than expected and the market took off to the upside. The Dow gained 489 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up and just crossed the zero line back into positive territory. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. The S&P had a gap at the open and never looked back. Still short term overbought and staying that way. We never saw a decent pullback on the way up over the past two weeks to attempt the SPY November calls. In retrospect we should have just bought anything to go along for the ride. But if you would have told me at the end of October that we would be knocking on the door of 4500 in 2 1/2 weeks, I wouldn't have believed you. Markets go where they want. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar got creamed and interest rates sank. The XAU gained 5 3/8 and GDX climbed about 1 1/3. Volume was heavy to the upside. The inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart might still be valid after todays price action. It has gotten more complex. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up. If GDX continues higher and breaks the 30 level, the mearsuring objective is still the 34 level. My December GDX calls have made it back to break even. The order for the GDX January calls hasn't been filled and it looks like it won't. I will either have to adjust it or move to a higher strike price. One day doesn't make a trend though so we'll have to see where the gold shares go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Nothing new here as the VIX looked like that it projected higher stock prices and that is what has come to pass. Three days remain in the November option cycle and we're most likely not going to make any SPY trades until after the holiday week goes by. The long side is the only way to go for now. A repeat of yesterday overseas as Europe was higher and Asia mixed again. We'll see how tomorrows inflation data is received.

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