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Monday, November 27, 2023

Sideways price action to start the week as the Dow fell 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. Most indices posted losses on the day led by the TRAN. The technical conditions for the S&P 500 remain the same. Extremely short term overbought and staying that way. Still heading up in a straight line that is not sustainable forever. Would like to see a snap back to the down trend line that was broken on the daily chart but the market goes where it wants. Remaining patient with regards to the SPY as there is plenty of time left in the December option cycle. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 1 7/8, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was below average. GDX is knocking on the door of the 30 level, which is the neckline of the complex inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break above there on good volume would validate the pattern. However GDX is short term overbought so some kind of stall here is possible as well. The 200 day moving average comes in just above the 30 level too. So we should know soon whether or not the original idea of the GDX calls is going to work. My GDX December calls are at a small profit once again. The open order for the GDX January calls remains out there but it doesn't look like it will get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly up today but remains short term oversold. It remains at a low level as the fear factor has gone away for now. Not sure what comes next here but the VIX is pretty far below its 50 day moving average. That conditon will not last indefinitely. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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