Friday, November 10, 2023
Powering higher as the Dow gained 391 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way up. Overbought, staying that way and the S&P 500 closed above the 4400 level. It wasn't a high volume break through but you cannot argue with price. Perhaps we'll stall in this area but the implications are clear. The market is going higher. We did not get the chance to purchase the SPY November calls that were on our radar. While we were wasting our time and effort on the gold shares the overall market powered higher. Missed opportunity. Gold fell thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were flat. The XAU lost a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart failed to materialize. That cost us. I sold the GDX November calls today for a 95% loss. We're still holding the GDX December calls but they are in the cut the loss mode at this point. GDX is short term oversold so we'll expect a bounce soon. That should give us a chance to dump the December calls, hopefully next week. We'll have a short holiday week after that and we pobably don't want to do any option buying before then. We are looking at the GDX January calls but the medium term indicators have rolled over and the prognosis is for lower prices. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated. We saw that the overall market had turned yet we did not purchase the SPY calls. Instead I'm stuck with counting my GDX losses. Sometimes it is a humbling game. The VIX was lower today and is staying short term oversold. Perhaps it will simply stay that way in options expiration week as the market moves higher. We'll see. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to maybe find an idea for expiration week. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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