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Monday, November 13, 2023

Waiting on inflation data as the Dow rose 54 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. A mixed bag though as both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted small losses. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We're inclined to try the SPY November calls if we see some selling this week. The market rarely cooperates. Otherwise we'll most likely remain on the sidelines regarding the S&P until after the holiday next week. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat. The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost almost 1/4. Volume was very light. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative. GDX remains short term oversold. My GDX December calls are solid losers. I did place an open order for the GDX January calls but it will take some selling to get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and is still short term oversold. Still way below the 20 level and the VIX implies higher stock prices going forward. That doesn't mean we won't see any declines but they should be short lived. If we see some selling tomorrow and into Wednesday we'll probably try the SPY calls with just a couple of days left in the option cycle. If we go higher tomorrow we'll stay out most likely for the rest of the week. We won't try and press things either way. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

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