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Thursday, November 02, 2023

The rally exploded to the upside today as the Dow roared ahead by 564 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The S&P 500 led the way today but all the major stock averages had stellar gains. The S&P has moved up in a straight line this week and the volume has been decent. We are now up against the first short term down trend line on the daily chart here, so some stalling may take place. However the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up with room to go, so this line will eventually get broken to the upside. Perhaps even tomorrow. We've missed the ideal time to enter a trade with the SPY November calls but we might still get a chance if we see some kind of pullback before option expiration. Well we can hope at least. Stating the obvious, the trend is now up. Gold rose $4 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Money is finding other places to go instead of gold now. That could change with the next problem in the Middle East but we don't know if or when that would happen. My GDX November call trade is a solid loser with a little over two weeks to go. We'll hold on for now but it could already be in the cut the loss mode for this one. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are oversold so perhaps there's still a chance this will work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower. It is now below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term oversold on the VIX but it stays that way during rallies. It has been quite a positive week for stocks and we'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report tomorrow. Make no mistake that the bottom is in. Europe and Asia were higher as money is moving into stocks around the globe. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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