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Friday, November 03, 2023

Quite a week on Wall street as the Dow capped things off with a gain of 222 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. We did see a little selling near the close but that was most likely just the short term traders taking their weekly profit. The employment report was viewed as market friendly. The NASDAQ led the way again. The S&P 500 has made it through the first down trend line of resistance. The next line that began the decline back in August comes in at 4400. My guess is that will be taken out by option expiration but we'll see. Waiting on some pullback to get the SPY November calls but we've already missed the lions share of this move. Not yet short term overbought on the indicators for the S&P. Things have changed in a hurry. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The gold shares came to life. The XAU gained 4 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was very heavy. The gold shares followed the overall market lower in the final hour. My GDX November calls are now showing a small profit. What a difference a day makes. The gold shares outperformed gold itself by a wide margin. That's usually a sign of more gains to come but we'll see what happens this time. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with room to run. Resistance for GDX comes in at the 30 level. If we can make it through there on good volume our GDX trade will work. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still heading lower and is still short term oversold. It can stay that way during rallies which is what we're in at the moment. We've seen a dramatic turnaround for stocks in just one week and that can't be ignored. Expect the gains to continue but not at the rapid pace that we saw this week. All signs point to higher prices going forward barring a negative external event. We'll be going over all the charts this weekend as usual to try and find an entry point for the November SPY call idea. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to finish out the week. It's Friday afternonn and time for a break.

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