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Friday, December 01, 2023

Still powering higher as the Dow gained 294 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a one day reversal to the upside for the S&P 500 as it opened lower and closed higher. Still short term overbought here as we've reached the next level of resistance at 4600. Will we see a pause? We should, as the stock market is long overdue for some kind of decline. The angle of ascent that we've seen simply cannot be sustained forever. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to reach extremes. However we'd only be guessing if we think now is the time for some selling because the market is on a roll. We certainly would not recommend trying the SPY puts anytime soon because the trend is steeply up. Gold jumped almost $35 on the futures and closed at a new all time high. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. The gold shares did not rise as much as expected with gold itself having such a good day. However GDX is very short term overbought and some kind of sideways price action or decline is likely at this point. I would still like to wait until it gets to at least the 33 level before selling the GDX December calls that I own but we'll have to wait and see. Two weeks left in the December option cycle so managing the trade from here is the key. The gold shares are starting to act like the overall market itself, up with no downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold to the extreme. There seems to be nothing but buyers out there now but that will chenge eventually and probably sooner rather than later. We'll have to be on our toes to figure out the remaining two weeks in the December option cycle. I'll check all the charts as usual this weekend. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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