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Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Continuing to move higher as the Dow gained 173 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The signal for a big move in stocks from the McClellan oscillator on Friday did not pan out. The inflation data came in where expected. After initially moving lower the market recovered and trended higher for the rest of the session. It was another one day reversal to the upside. The potential negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 is gone. The short term indicators for the S&P are now extremely overbought. I suspect that we'll have to see some kind of selling very soon. However we have clearly gotten through the resistance at 4600 and the trend is up. We'll see what happens with the inflation data and the Fed tomorrow. Gold finished practically flat on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU lost 3 1/8, while GDX dropped 2/3. Volume was above average. GDX is almost short term oversold. I adjusted my open order for the GDX January calls to a closer to the money strike price. Another day like today would most likely get it filled. The gold shares dropping with gold going nowhere is bearish. GDX has made it all the way back to its 50 day moving average. Perhaps the idea of the January calls here is the wrong one. I will reconsider this overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to head south for the lowest close of the year. Still short term oversold as it has been for almost a month and a half. This too cannot go on forever. The VIX did touch its lower Bollinger band and bounce off of it today so perhaps it will move higher tomorrow. We'll see. Asia was higher with the exception of India while Europe was marginally lower. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

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