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Monday, December 04, 2023

Sellers took over in the overall market to begin the week but the Dow only fell 41 points on good volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. We had a gap down at the open on the S&P 500. It did manage to finish off of the worst levels on the session. The short term indicators still remain overbought though and we'll need more than what we saw today to relieve that condition. Still pretty far removed from the 50 day moving average for most of the major stock averages.. We do have economic data out this week with the jobs report on Friday as the main event. Gold was highly volatile on the futures as the daily range was over $100. Overnight there was jump to the $2150 level only to see sellers take over and drive the price back back to below $2050. It finished off over forty bucks. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The gold shares sank with the XAU dropping 3 1/3 and GDX losing over 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over but are still overbought. My GDX December calls are still in the black but were cut in half today. Managing things from here won't be easy after todays price action. I'm still a believer in the gold shares but they are due for a rest just like the overall market. I'll consider where we go from here overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but is still short term oversold. If it continues higher perhaps we'll see the pause in the market uptrend that is overdue. Or maybe the market just goes sideways from here. When in doubt, stay out is how the saying goes. Perhaps trying the SPY December calls before expiration isn't a good idea but we are still considering it. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe finished little changed one way or the other. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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