Friday, December 15, 2023
We finished the week on a mixed note as the Dow gained 56 points on very heavy expiration related volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 closed with a fractional loss and remains short term overbought to the extreme. I would expect to see some selling or at least sideways movement next week but you never know. Perhaps we'll just plow on to new all time highs. But my guess is some kind of pause to set up the Santa Claus rally which takes place the last five trading days of the year followed by the first two days of the new year. Whatever squaring of the books for 2023 will take place next week as many players will be off between Christmas and New Years. We will wait for some kind of trading signal in the SPY before attempting anything there. Ideally something that sets us up for the calls because the market is in a bullish mode. Gold was off $11 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. I still favor the January calls for GDX and a few of the short term indicators are trying to turn lower here. I'll consider placing an order for some next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still short term oversold as it moved lower today. The daily Bollinger bands are getting closer together suggesting that we'll see some kind of outsized move in this indicator soon. We'll see. What we do know is that as long as the VIX stays low the rally has room to go. An extra week in the January option cycle so premiums will be high but there is more time for ideas to work. We'll go over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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