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Thursday, December 21, 2023

Buyers were back in charge today as the Dow climbed 322 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Yesterdays huge decline looks like a one day wonder but we'll have to see tomorrows reaction to the inflation data to be sure. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought though. I'd expect most of the activity to take place early tomorrow as traders head home early for the holiday and the bond market closes early. The stock market remains in rally mode although we could head sideways here to relieve some of the overbought condition. We'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remain steady. The XAU was up a couple points and GDX rose over 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX January calls but will remain patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are starting to roll back over. This would be a positive for stocks if it continues. We'll know more after the reaction to the inflation data out tomorrow. The VIX does remain at low levels and as long as that continues the trend will be higher for the market. We are entering holiday mode for the markets so the volume will be light and the conviction of the moves in question. The Santa Claus rally is due to begin tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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