Wednesday, December 13, 2023
The Fed spoke and the market loved what it heard as the Dow climbed 512 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a huge rally as all the stock indices celebrated Christmas a little early. The S&P 500 is short term overbought, staying that way and getting to extremes. New all time highs for the S&P will be coming in the following weeks. The Fed is done raising rates and will be looking to cut according to todays monologue. In retrospect the December SPY calls were not a bad idea but we were not willing to take the risk. Obviously did not anticipate a dovish Fed. The S&P is now pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that cannot last forever. But we will not stand in the way of this freight train as the bulls are clearly in charge. Gold took off with stocks as the futures rose $46. The US dollar got clobbered and interest rates sank. The gold shares rallied with the XAU gaining 7 1/8 and GDX jumping over 1 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. My order for the GDX January calls never got filled. I still like this idea but after missing todays move we'll have to wait and see if we get any pullback in order to give it a try. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up however there is still plenty of room for them to go higher. I don't think that today is just a one day wonder for gold but we'll see. It was an incredible move in the gold shares that the likes we haven't seen in quite a while. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as we were looking in the right direction but not able to take advantage of the situation. But you've got to keep moving forward in the game. The VIX was up a touch as it bounced off of the lower Bollinger band again. This indicator has been short term oversold for so long it is beginning to lose any kind of useful reference for us. What it does point out is that with such low readings the bulls are in charge. Two days left in the December option cycle as the bullish expiration week bias has been in full force. I guess we'll see how far the market can go. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what kind of follow through we get tomorrow.
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