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Tuesday, December 05, 2023

The mixed market theme continues as the Dow fell 79 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ posted a small gain while the S&P 500 was barely lower. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. Still short term overbought there but not as much as lately. Not sure what the next move for the S&P is and we may have to wait until Fridays jobs report to find out. Markets have stopped moving straight up though as the easy money has already been made. If we continue to see a dip we might try the SPY December calls. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was good to the downside as traders are getting out of their gold positions. The short term technical indicators for GDX are moving lower from overbought readings. I'm still holding on to the GDX December calls and they still have a small gain. It appears that the best time to exit this trade has passed. The price action now is heading back to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart which lies at the 30 level. 30 should contain the recent decline and price should move back up from there. That is a reasonable conclusion of the price action for GDX but markets go where they want. We are counting on the technical analysis to work but it never has been 100%. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold but not at an extreme level. Don't know what to expect next here. Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle. We'll have the Fed to deal with next week as well. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher except for the FTSE. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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