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Monday, December 18, 2023

The buying spree continues for the overall market but the Dow finished flat on average volume. The advance/declines were around even. The summation index is still moving up. It feels like holiday mode already as we opened higher and trended that way for much of the session. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 led the way. The S&P remains extremely short term overbought and has been overbought for a month and a half. Sellers have vanished. This cannot go on indefinately. However trying to step in front of this freight train is not advised. Plenty of time in the January option cycle and the sidelines makes sense for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume. You can see that the theme today was lackluster trading all around. Do not be surpirsed if that continues. I like the GDX January calls still if we get some pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit todays price action. The short term indicators here have finally turned up. Combine that with the very tight Bollinger bands on the daily chart and you have a recipe for more volatility in the near term. That would not fit with our holiday mode thesis so we'll have to see how the rest of this week plays out. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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