Tuesday, December 19, 2023
Hihger and higher we climb as the Dow gained 251 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Sellers are nowhere to be found. At this point we are just repeating the same thing day after day. Extremely short term overbought and staying that way. But it is in fact what's happening. There is no telling how long this will go on and we are not about to guess when it ends. We are content to watch from the sidelines for now as there is plenty of time in the January option cycle to trade. The S&P 500 is pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that won't last forever. We'll remain patient adn perhaps will not put on a new trade until the new year. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remain steady. The XAU rose 3 1/2, while GDX added over 3/4. Volume was good to the upside and money continues to find a home in this space. GDX is short term overbought but not extremely so. There is a longer term down trend line at 32.5 to get through and that is a point away. I'm still looking at the GDX January calls despite the recent advance. Getting through 32.5 would point to 35 as the next target. What are we waiting for? Some type of decline or consolidation as there is so much time left for the January options that the premiums are pretty pricey. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX pretty much finished flat today. The tight Bollinger bands stand out on the daily chart. The VIX is so low already that I can't think that the next move there will be even lower but anything is possible I guess. I'm still voting for an increase in volatility and some kind of market drop in the near term. Long overdue in fact but again, we won't stand in the way of this rally. Europe and Asia finised higher with the exception of Hong Kong. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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